The Climate Prediction Center’s August-through-October outlook, issued July 16, favors above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States and Alaska. A broad area of higher probabilities covers the West, South and East, with the strongest odds in the Northwest, southwestern Texas and parts of the Southeast. NOAA shows equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal temperatures across parts of the north-central United States, including portions of the Northern Plains, Central Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Upper Great Lakes and Middle Mississippi Valley.

What NOAA is forecasting

NOAA’s precipitation outlook is more mixed than its temperature outlook. Above-normal precipitation is favored from the Southwest into parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern and Central Plains, as well as sections of the Middle Mississippi, western Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Below-normal precipitation is favored in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes.

For August specifically, NOAA’s July 31 monthly outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the western and southern two-thirds of the contiguous United States. Confidence is greater than 50% across much of the Southern Plains and along coastal California. Confidence is lower across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast and much of Alaska, where the forecast signals are less consistent.

El Niño is strengthening, but effects vary

NOAA says El Niño strengthened during the month before its July 16 outlook and is expected to intensify through 2026 before continuing into early 2027. The agency gives the event an 81% chance of reaching very strong status during October through December 2026.

That signal helps shape the seasonal outlook, but El Niño does not produce the same result everywhere. Its influence depends on the season, location and other factors, including longer-term temperature trends, soil moisture and nearby ocean conditions. NOAA’s outlook therefore describes probabilities over broad regions rather than a uniform national outcome.

The drought map is not one national story

NOAA’s updated August-through-October drought assessment says persistence has become more likely across the High Plains and is also favored in remaining drought areas of southern Texas. Possible drought development across the northern Plains remains in the forecast.

At the same time, NOAA forecasts drought improvement in the Southeast and across parts of the Four Corners and Rockies, where enhanced monsoon moisture is expected to help reduce drought. The agency also notes that the updated map reflects newer guidance and a more western focus to monsoon activity. Rainfall that improves conditions in one region therefore does not eliminate heat or drought risk elsewhere.

Why the outlook matters for planning

Heat can increase risks for people working or exercising outdoors and can raise the need for cooling and hydration. It can also add stress to crops and water systems. Heat combined with dry soils, low humidity or strong winds can increase wildfire concerns and complicate fire operations, even when seasonal precipitation is forecast to be near normal or above normal in part of a region.

A Western heat wave reported by The Associated Press illustrates why agencies and residents may use the outlook as an early planning signal. AP reported near-record or record temperatures from Arizona to Montana, cooling-center use in Phoenix and heightened wildfire concerns as heat reduced moisture and afternoon relative humidity in parts of the region. That was a short-term weather event, not proof that NOAA’s seasonal outlook guarantees continued extreme heat everywhere in the West.

What the outlook cannot tell you

A seasonal outlook cannot determine the temperature in a particular town on a particular day. It also cannot predict every heat wave, thunderstorm, rainfall total or fire’s behavior. Seasonal precipitation probabilities do not replace local forecasts, heat advisories, red-flag warnings, drought monitors or emergency instructions.

Farmers, water managers, utilities, outdoor employers and emergency planners can use the broad probabilities to review staffing, cooling, irrigation, communications and wildfire preparations. Residents should rely on their local National Weather Service office and local emergency-management alerts for operational decisions.

NOAA’s next scheduled seasonal and drought updates are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on August 20, 2026. New observations and model guidance could change the regional probabilities.

Sources

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook, July 16, 2026
• Associated Press Western heat report

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put the chance of a very strong event during that period at greater than 90%. It also estimated a 69% chance that the October-December 2026 event will exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating to 1950, using the agency’s historic-strength threshold.

Those figures are forecasts, not guarantees of a specific drought, flood or crop failure. Local outcomes will depend on geography, season, crop calendars and other climate and economic pressures.

Why the forecast matters for farming

El Niño develops when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than average, altering atmospheric circulation and shifting rainfall and heat patterns around the world. For farmers, that can mean a shorter planting window, poor germination, heat stress during crop development, damaged pasture, livestock losses or reduced water availability.

The effects are not uniform. Forecast assessments point to increased risks of dryness and heat in parts of South and Southeast Asia, Central America and southern Africa. In East Africa, the risk can change by season: parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda face below-average rain and above-average temperatures during July-September, while heavier rain and flooding risks are expected in parts of the region during October-December.

That uneven pattern matters because both drought and excessive rain can damage food production. Dry conditions can reduce pasture and water supplies, while flooding can wash away seed, crops and topsoil, damage roads and storage facilities, and disrupt access to markets.

Model agreement is strengthening

The International Research Institute at Columbia University reported on July 20 that all 26 participating models maintained El Niño conditions through the forecast period. Twenty-three of the 26 models projected a very strong peak during October-December 2026.

IRI also cautioned that forecast skill generally declines with longer lead times. The strongest signal is therefore the continued likelihood of El Niño through late 2026 and into early 2027, not a precise prediction for every farming district. ACAPS likewise said forecast accuracy typically decreases when the lead time exceeds about three months, and that its January-March 2027 risk assessment relies more heavily on historical patterns than on direct seasonal forecasts.

Food-security exposure

The World Bank’s June 2026 food-security update said rice output could fall by 20% to 50% in affected regions if the El Niño projection is realized. It identified South Asia, southern Africa and parts of East Asia as especially exposed.

That is a conditional estimate for affected regions, not a confirmed global decline. Food prices and availability will also depend on inventories, trade, fertilizer costs, conflict, transport and government action. The same World Bank update said fertilizer prices rose 35% during the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, adding pressure to farm production independently of any future weather losses.

ACAPS, a humanitarian analysis organization, warned that climate hazards could compound conflict, displacement, weak coping capacity and competition over water and other resources. It also noted that conditions can vary significantly within a country because cropping cycles and livelihood systems differ by location.

FAO and WFP seek early funding

The Food and Agriculture Organization and World Food Programme are seeking $202 million to support anticipatory action in 22 high-risk countries. The appeal aims to protect 8.8 million people before extreme weather causes larger losses.

FAO and WFP say they are already positioned to support 1.2 million people. An additional $167 million would expand coverage by 7.6 million people, bringing the total planned coverage to 8.8 million across countries in Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

The proposed measures include cash assistance, drought-tolerant or flood-resistant seed, livestock protection, water harvesting and storage, flood-protection infrastructure, agricultural advisories and early-warning information. The agencies are requesting the money; the $202 million is not described as funding already secured.

What happens next

The next test is whether donors finance the appeal and whether national agencies convert regional forecasts into timely farm and humanitarian measures. Governments, traders and aid groups will be watching rainfall, heat, reservoir levels, planting conditions and crop calendars as the event develops.

For rural communities, early action may be more important than a single global forecast number. Cash, seed, water storage, livestock support and clear advisories can help families protect production before the most damaging weather arrives. The immediate change is not a confirmed harvest collapse, but a substantially stronger risk signal and a narrower window for preparation.

Sources

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, August 13, 2026
• International Research Institute, July 2026 ENSO Forecast
• FAO and WFP, Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal, June 18, 2026
• World Bank, Latest Food Security Update, June 2026
• ACAPS, El Niño Overview: Countries to Watch, July 7, 2026

The Lower 48 averaged 76.89 degrees Fahrenheit during July. That was about one-eighth of a degree warmer than the previous July record, set during the Dust Bowl in 1936. NOAA’s modern contiguous-U.S. record begins in 1895.

The result does not mean every location or every day was record-hot. It means temperatures were high across enough of the country, for enough of the month, to produce the highest nationwide monthly average in the record.

Heat was unusually widespread

Every one of the 48 contiguous states averaged at least 1 degree Fahrenheit above its 20th-century average for July. The strongest departures were reported across the Mountain West, Southwest, Northern Plains and Southeast.

The national average uses temperatures across the full 24-hour day, not only afternoon highs. Overnight conditions therefore played a major role in the record.

The old record for the hottest minimum temperatures was exceeded by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the Associated Press’s report on NOAA’s findings. Warm nights can leave the body with less time to cool and recover, increasing cumulative heat stress during prolonged hot weather. Homes that do not cool down overnight can also make sleep and recovery more difficult.

What NOAA expects next

NOAA’s August-through-October 2026 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States, especially parts of the West, South and East. It is a probabilistic outlook, not a guarantee that every location will remain hot or that every forecast will verify.

NOAA’s updated seasonal drought outlook favors drought persistence in the High Plains and in remaining drought areas of southern Texas. It also maintains the possibility of drought development in parts of the northern Plains and favors improvement across the Southeast.

Those conditions are relevant to water managers, farmers, utilities, wildfire agencies and emergency officials. Heat can raise electricity demand for cooling, increase water stress and dry vegetation, but the July temperature record alone does not establish the cause of any particular wildfire, drought episode or health outcome.

What the record means for residents

Residents should rely on local heat alerts and forecasts rather than a national average for immediate decisions. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends staying hydrated, limiting strenuous activity during the hottest periods, using air conditioning or a cooling location when needed, and checking on older adults, young children and people with medical conditions.

Warm overnight temperatures are a reason to take heat warnings seriously even when afternoon readings fall. People who work outdoors, lack reliable cooling or live with conditions affected by heat may need extra precautions.

Local governments and emergency agencies may use national climate data alongside local forecasts, drought monitors and infrastructure information when planning cooling-center operations, public messaging, worker protections, power demand and wildfire readiness. The next major checkpoints are NOAA’s next monthly climate release and the Climate Prediction Center’s scheduled August 20, 2026, outlook update. For immediate safety decisions, local forecasts and heat advisories remain more useful than the national record.

Sources

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Outlook Discussion
• Associated Press: NOAA says the Lower 48 set a record for hottest month in July
• CDC About Extreme Heat

The application period for the City of Riverside’s 2026–27 Youth Climate Action Fund is scheduled to run through September 25, according to the city’s Office of Sustainability. The program is part of a Bloomberg Philanthropies initiative that pairs city governments with young people on local climate projects.

Funding for projects inside Riverside

The program is intended for youth-led projects that take place within the City of Riverside. Selected project teams may receive microgrants ranging from $1,000 to $5,000, and the city says it may support up to 40 youth-led groups.

The up-to-40 figure is a program target, not a guarantee that 40 teams will be selected. The advertised grant range also does not mean every applicant will receive funding.

Projects should align with Riverside priorities including extreme-heat preparedness, urban trees, sustainable transportation, local food systems, energy and civic engagement. The city has not said that the grants themselves will produce a citywide reduction in heat, emissions or household costs.

An organization must handle the money

Young people will lead the ideas, planning and project work, but grant funds will not be paid directly to individuals. Funding must go through an eligible organization that can receive and manage the microgrant.

Eligible sponsors may include youth-led or youth-serving organizations, city agencies, schools and other educational institutions, museums and community organizations. The city says qualifying organizations must generally be legally registered, recognized as nonprofit or charitable organizations unless they are public entities, and maintain a bank account in the organization’s name.

Private companies, individuals, political parties and party-affiliated organizations are not eligible sponsors. The city unit managing the program also cannot act as a project sponsor.

What applicants should do now

Eligible Riverside youth teams can use the days before August 17 to develop a project idea and identify a qualifying sponsor. Possible projects could address shade or cooling resources, tree care, walking and bicycling, food access, energy efficiency or climate education, provided the work occurs in Riverside.

The city says the application will be posted on its Youth Climate Action Fund page when the submission window opens. Additional application details, including workshop information, are expected as the application period approaches.

The city’s timeline calls for project selection in October and November 2026. Implementation is planned for December 2026 through April 2027, followed by a completion and wrap-up period in April 2027.

Riverside was selected for the 2026–27 Youth Climate Action Fund cohort by Bloomberg Philanthropies. Bloomberg describes the initiative as providing funding and technical assistance for small-scale, youth-led projects addressing local climate challenges.

Sources

• Youth Climate Action Fund | City of Riverside Office of Sustainability
• Bloomberg Philanthropies annual report

WMO said its latest seasonal assessment points toward a strong El Niño, with multi-model forecasts showing seasonal-average sea-surface-temperature anomalies above 2.9 degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions. NOAA’s July 9 assessment likewise said El Niño was strengthening, gave a 97% chance that it would persist through early spring 2027 and put the chance of a very strong event during October-December 2026 at 81%.

Why the Indian Ocean signal matters

The Pacific event is developing alongside a forecast positive Indian Ocean Dipole. That pattern describes warmer-than-average water in the western Indian Ocean and cooler-than-average water in the eastern Indian Ocean. WMO says the two oceanic drivers could amplify regional climate effects, including drought, flooding and wildfire risk, particularly around the Indian Ocean basin.

WMO’s seasonal outlook gives much of the world higher odds of above-normal land temperatures. It also identifies increased chances of below-normal rainfall in parts of Australia, the Indian subcontinent, the Greater Horn of Africa, northern South America and parts of Central America. Other regions have enhanced odds of wetter conditions, which can increase the risk of flooding, landslides and transport disruption. These signals do not apply uniformly to every country or community.

Seasonal outlooks are probabilistic, not deterministic weather forecasts. They shift the odds of broad conditions over months; they do not identify the exact date or location of a storm, flood, drought or wildfire. Local conditions, shorter-term weather systems and preparedness will determine what actually happens on the ground.

Food systems face multiple pressure points

For farmers and livestock producers, the effects can begin before a disaster is visible. Changes in rainfall may affect planting decisions, crop development, harvests, pasture and water availability. Heat can increase stress on crops and animals, while drought can reduce irrigation supplies and intensify competition for water.

The Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme said June 18 that they were seeking $202 million to expand anticipatory action for 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries. The appeal includes $167 million in additional funding to extend support beyond 1.2 million people the agencies said they could already reach. It is a funding request and preparedness target, not money that has already been fully distributed.

The proposed measures include cash assistance, drought-tolerant or flood-resistant seeds, livestock protection, water storage, flood defenses, agricultural advice and early-warning information. Food and commodity effects remain possible rather than automatic: local rainfall, existing stocks, conflict, energy costs, trade conditions and the quality of national preparation will influence whether a regional climate shock becomes a wider market problem.

Governments are moving toward contingency planning

Associated Press reporting found governments across Latin America activating or expanding preparations for possible water, energy, transport, wildfire and flooding pressures. Brazil has deployed more than 4,600 federal personnel for wildfire prevention and response, while Colombia has strengthened water monitoring and wildfire preparedness. Ecuador has ordered local contingency plans and begun flood-mitigation work; Costa Rica has reported more than 200 measures under a national contingency plan; Peru has strengthened monitoring and early-warning systems; and Panama has planned for possible effects on water availability for the Panama Canal.

Those actions show the practical value of a seasonal warning: authorities can review reservoirs, protect drainage systems, prepare emergency services, adjust farm plans and arrange backup energy before conditions become more difficult. AP also reported that preparation remains uneven, meaning that a forecast alone does not ensure that local governments, households or humanitarian agencies will have the resources to act.

FAO says global warming has raised the temperature baseline on which El Niño now develops, increasing exposure for agriculture and food systems. That does not mean El Niño alone determines every outcome. Individual impacts will still depend on local weather, geography, existing vulnerabilities and decisions made before hazards intensify.

What comes next

NOAA’s next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for August 13, 2026. WMO says its next full El Niño/La Niña update is expected in early September. Those releases may refine the event’s strength, timing and regional consequences.

The immediate change is therefore not a single worldwide emergency. It is a stronger seasonal signal that several climate hazards may become more likely in different places at the same time. Governments, aid agencies, farmers and communities still have a limited but meaningful window to pre-position supplies, protect water systems, reinforce health measures and fund early action before waiting for certainty becomes more expensive.

Sources

• World Meteorological Organization: Strong El Niño expected to intensify
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
• FAO and WFP: Preparing for El Niño joint appeal
• Associated Press: Latin American governments prepare for El Nino

The emergency remains active. The National Interagency Fire Center’s August 4 situation report listed evacuations, road or area closures and threatened structures or critical infrastructure at several fires in and around Spokane. Conditions and evacuation boundaries can change quickly.

Heat and wind are worsening fire conditions

The National Weather Service and AP reported dangerous heat across much of the Western United States. The heat dome was associated with a ridge of high pressure extending from Arizona to Montana. Las Vegas reached 115 degrees Fahrenheit, Phoenix was expected to reach 116 degrees and Great Falls, Montana, was forecast to approach a record 104 degrees, AP reported.

The heat is not a confirmed cause of any individual fire. Forecasters instead warned that high temperatures, low humidity, dryness from drought and earlier heat, drying fuels and strong winds can combine to help fires spread rapidly. In Nevada, afternoon relative humidity was expected to fall into the single digits in some locations, while high winds and red-flag conditions were reported across parts of the West.

AP also reported that the National Weather Service issued a particularly dangerous situation red-flag alert for eastern Washington before the fires intensified. That alert described the weather risk as extreme, according to the report.

Spokane-area fires remain a major threat

Authorities said about 60,000 people in the Spokane area were forced to evacuate. AP separately reported that about 5,000 homes were under evacuation orders. The 60,000 figure refers to people, not homes, and is not a confirmed statewide total.

At least 600 homes, businesses and other buildings were destroyed, according to authorities cited by AP. That figure covers multiple types of structures and should not be read as a residential-home count alone.

NIFC‘s August 4 report listed the Old Trails, Autumn Lane and Fairview incidents near Spokane. Old Trails was three miles west of Spokane, Autumn Lane seven miles northwest and Fairview two miles northeast. The report said structures, residences or critical infrastructure were threatened and that evacuations, road, trail or area closures were in effect at those incidents.

Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson declared a state of emergency on Saturday and banned most outdoor and agricultural burning through the end of September, AP reported. That state action is not the same as a confirmed federal disaster declaration. The reviewed material did not confirm a qualifying FEMA disaster declaration for these fires.

Federal resources are stretched

NIFC reported National Preparedness Level 5 on August 4, the highest level in the federal fire-management system. The snapshot listed 99 uncontained large fires, 3,274,384 cumulative acres in active incidents and 27,448 personnel assigned nationwide.

The Northwest Area accounted for 50 uncontained large fires and 18,441 personnel. NIFC reported 18 committed complex incident management teams and one national incident management organization in the area. Aircraft were also deployed for wildland-fire operations, including military C-130 airtankers positioned in Oregon and California.

NIFC also reported that a 15-member incident management team and 59 fireline-management personnel from Australia and New Zealand were supporting large fires in the Northwest.

Those figures are a snapshot from the August 4 report and can change quickly. The acreage total represents cumulative acres in active incidents, not necessarily land burned during this heat wave and not a final 2026 season total.

What residents and travelers should watch

People inside evacuation areas should follow local orders immediately and rely on county emergency management, sheriff, fire district and state alerts for zone changes. People outside evacuation zones should continue monitoring smoke, air quality, road closures and fire-weather warnings because conditions can shift rapidly.

Residents should avoid outdoor burning and campfires wherever restrictions apply. Households near active fires should keep essential medications, identification, chargers, pet supplies and a vehicle fuel plan ready. Travelers should check official road, trail and park-closure information before entering eastern Washington, Oregon or other affected Western areas.

The next important updates will involve containment changes, new evacuation orders, revised structure-loss totals, changes to weather warnings and any announcement of federal assistance.

Sources

• National Interagency Fire Center situation report — August 4, 2026
• Associated Press report on Spokane-area evacuations

The development was documented in reporting updated August 3, 2026, and in official monitoring continuing into August 4. In Greece, wildfires west of Athens crossed containment lines, prompting the evacuation of more than 1,000 people, including more than 250 rescued by boat from beaches near Porto Germeno. Fire crews used 12 water-dropping planes and 11 helicopters as winds pushed flames toward homes, farms and roads.

In France, thousands of evacuees were allowed to return after a large wildfire in the Bordeaux region was contained. The blaze burned about 420 square kilometers, destroyed 183 homes and forced more than 224,000 people to leave, according to Associated Press reporting. A separate fire in Provence remained uncontained, with about 1,500 firefighters reinforcing fire lines.

A wider pattern, not one uniform emergency

The fires are part of a broader but uneven pattern that also includes Italy, Spain, Portugal and the United Kingdom. Conditions differ by country and region: some areas are facing active fires, others formal drought declarations, and others prolonged dry weather or localized water restrictions.

Copernicus Climate Change Service data show that June 2026 was western Europe’s hottest June on record. The service also reported extreme heat over land and sea, including record-breaking heat across much of western Europe and marine heatwaves in the western Mediterranean and along Atlantic coasts.

Other official monitoring shows how the heat is interacting with limited rainfall and declining water availability. Heat dries vegetation and soils. Low rainfall then slows the replenishment of rivers, groundwater and reservoirs. Together, those conditions can increase fire danger while reducing water available for households, agriculture, wildlife and industry.

Water pressure is becoming an operational problem

Natural Resources Wales declared drought status on July 23 for North Wales and the Upper Severn after widespread wildfires, exceptionally low river flows and environmental impacts from prolonged hot, dry weather. The affected areas had received less than 2% of the expected rainfall for July at that point, and some locations recorded new monthly minimum flows or approached record lows.

Officials reported drying riverbeds, falling groundwater, high river temperatures, pressure on fish and freshwater habitats, and concerns from farmers about water availability and grazing conditions. Reservoir levels remained healthy overall in Wales, but the agency urged residents to use water carefully. Drought status reflects environmental pressure and does not automatically mean customer water supplies are short.

England’s latest official report, covering July 17 through July 23 and published July 31, said rainfall through July 21 was only 3% of the long-term average for that period. It reported that 84% of monitored river flows were below normal or lower, while reservoir storage stood at 75.3% for England, about 7.4% below the long-term average for that point in the year.

England had no areas formally classified as being in drought in that report, but multiple catchments were in prolonged dry weather. Temporary use bans affected almost 40% of England’s population. Low river flows had also led to 1,353 hands-off-flow restrictions on abstraction licenses to protect water supplies and the environment.

What readers should watch

For people in affected areas, the immediate risks include evacuation orders, smoke, road or rail closures, changing outdoor-fire rules and travel disruption. Farmers are dealing with irrigation pressure, early harvesting, field fires and reduced grass growth. Water managers are watching rainfall, reservoir storage, river temperatures and the condition of fish and other wildlife.

Low water levels can create localized problems for navigation, infrastructure, cooling systems and other services, but those effects vary by river basin and should be confirmed locally. The next important indicators are whether sustained rain arrives, whether active fires remain contained, and whether official drought classifications, abstraction controls or water restrictions expand.

The evidence does not show that every part of Europe is affected in the same way, and it does not by itself attribute any individual fire to climate change. It does show how heat, dryness, fire and water stress can reinforce one another across neighboring regions during the same summer.

Sources

• Associated Press wildfire and evacuation report
• Copernicus Climate Change Service June 2026 analysis
• Natural Resources Wales drought declaration
• England dry-weather and drought report

The National Drought Status page also reported that 40.07% of the United States and Puerto Rico was in drought. Those percentages describe conditions valid through July 28, 2026; they do not measure weather that occurred after that date.

What changed in the latest assessment

The national pattern is uneven rather than uniformly worse. Drought expanded or intensified across large parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, while heavy precipitation brought improvement to portions of the Eastern United States. The West saw a mix of improvement and degradation.

The U.S. Drought Monitor uses five categories, from D0, or abnormally dry, through D4, or exceptional drought. The categories describe the severity of moisture shortages and related effects, but conditions can differ within a classified area depending on local rainfall, soil, water supplies and infrastructure.

Water supplies are under pressure in some regions

Federal regional reporting documents below-normal groundwater and streamflows, dry wells, water restrictions and declining reservoirs or underground wells in affected areas. Those conditions can put additional pressure on household wells, municipal systems, farms and other water users.

A July 16 Mid-Atlantic drought update reported groundwater levels much below normal in parts of the region, mixed streamflows, dry wells and water restrictions, along with crop and tree stress. It also said heavy rainfall had improved drought conditions in some areas and that further improvement was expected. Because the report reflects information available on July 16, it is a regional snapshot, not a newer nationwide measurement.

For residents and businesses, the practical effects can include limits on outdoor water use, greater reliance on stored or pumped supplies and more pressure on local water systems. The severity depends on local infrastructure, recent rainfall and the condition of individual wells, reservoirs and streams.

Farms and vegetation are also showing stress

Drought can reduce soil moisture and increase irrigation pressure even when conditions vary from one county or watershed to the next. Federal updates describe stress affecting crops, trees and other vegetation, as well as agricultural losses in some affected areas.

Those reports document pressure on farms and agricultural users, but they do not establish that drought has caused a particular nationwide food-price increase. Any consumer-price effects would depend on the crop, the region, the scale of production losses and broader market conditions.

Heat and dryness can raise fire risk

Heat and dry vegetation can increase wildfire or brush-fire risk, but fire conditions also depend on wind, fuel moisture, terrain and recent weather. The Associated Press reported safety warnings and wildfire concerns during a record-breaking heat wave in parts of the Western United States.

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are also affected U.S. jurisdictions. A July 23 federal update for the U.S. Caribbean described water rationing, critically low streams, declining reservoirs and underground wells, stressed vegetation, agricultural losses and limited replenishment of household cisterns. It reported more than 300 brush-fire reports in Puerto Rico during July.

What to watch through October

NOAA’s August-through-October Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for a mixed pattern rather than uniform deterioration nationwide. Its discussion favors persistence or further expansion in some northern areas and the U.S. Caribbean, while projecting improvement in portions of the West and Plains. The outlook is a forecast, not a policy decision or a guarantee of local conditions.

Readers should monitor weekly Drought Monitor updates, local water restrictions, streamflow and groundwater notices, reservoir conditions and fire-weather alerts. The next weekly assessments will show whether worsening conditions continue in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest or whether rainfall produces further improvement in the East and elsewhere.

Sources

• National Drought Status, Drought.gov — July 30, 2026
• Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
• Record-breaking heat wave prompts safety warnings across Western U.S., Associated Press

The hearing concerns Docket 1223, a proposed change to how Boston records and spends revenue connected to municipal energy activities, including payments from the city’s demand-response program. The proposal is pending and would not immediately change household utility bills, energy-program eligibility or city services.

What Docket 1223 would change

The proposed ordinance would replace the current language in Boston Code Chapter VI, Section 6-9.5(G), governing the Distributed Energy Resource Revenue Revolving Fund. The measure would direct the City Auditor to maintain the fund as a separate account and credit it with revenue from the sale of solar renewable energy certificates produced by city photovoltaic arrays, the sale of alternative energy certificates produced by School Department combined heat and power units, and payments earned by city demand-response systems and received by the Environment Department.

The ordinance would allow the Environment Department to spend from the fund on several energy-related purposes. Those uses include greenhouse-gas-emissions offsets for municipal emissions not otherwise addressed through the city’s distributed energy resources, renewable energy and demand-response programs; monitoring, operating and maintaining city and School Department photovoltaic arrays and combined heat and power units; and maintaining the Environment Department’s demand-response systems.

The proposed list also includes demand-response aggregator contracts and enrollment support, controls programming and building-automation adjustments, retrocommissioning, repairs or replacement of failed sensors and related equipment, submetering and interval-data access, data systems and analytics, performance tracking, load-flexibility assessments, feasibility studies, and battery or thermal-storage installations that affect program participation.

Why demand response is part of the proposal

Demand response generally means reducing or shifting electricity use when demand is high. In the mayor’s transmittal and the council hearing notice, the city says the amendment would help the fund capture demand-response revenue and support further development of Boston’s demand-response program.

The city lists increased energy savings and reduced greenhouse-gas emissions as goals of the proposal. Those are stated objectives, not verified outcomes. The council has not enacted the amendment, and the records do not present it as an immediate rate change or a guarantee of savings for individual households.

How Boston residents can watch or testify

The August 4 hearing will be conducted remotely through Zoom. The public can watch it through Boston City Council TV’s online livestream or on Xfinity Channel 8, RCN Channel 82 and Fios Channel 964. The city says the hearing will be recorded for later viewing.

Residents who want to testify virtually must email Meghan Kavanagh, the committee staff contact, for a videoconference link and instructions. Written comments may be sent to ccc.go@boston.gov or meghan.kavanagh@boston.gov. The hearing notice says written comments will become part of the public record and be available to councilors.

Written correspondence may be addressed to Docket #1223, Boston City Council, City Hall, 5th Floor, Boston, MA 02201. The notice lists Kavanagh’s telephone number as 617-635-3040.

What happens next

The City Council record identifies Docket 1223 as a matter under consideration by the Committee on Government Operations and lists its status as “Agenda Ready.” The August 4 hearing is the scheduled opportunity for committee discussion and public testimony. Any later action would depend on the council’s legislative process.

Until the council passes the ordinance and it takes effect, the proposed fund-accounting changes remain under consideration rather than a final change to Boston’s energy programs.

Sources

• Boston hearing notice for Docket #1223
• Boston City Council legislative record for File 2026-1223

The inventory, released in July 2026, estimates that Bloomington’s community-wide emissions totaled about 1.27 million metric tons of carbon-dioxide equivalent in 2024. WFIU reported the release and findings on July 20.

Stationary energy accounts for most emissions

Stationary energy, including natural gas and electricity used in buildings and other fixed locations, accounted for 67.4% of community-wide emissions, according to the inventory.

Transportation accounted for about 25% of emissions, while solid waste and wastewater accounted for 7.5%.

These are estimates from an annual inventory, not direct real-time measurements. The community-wide figures also should not be confused with the separate emissions associated with municipal operations.

Cars dominate transportation emissions

The inventory identifies transportation as the sector least on track to meet Bloomington’s climate targets and says it will likely be the most difficult sector to decarbonize.

Cars accounted for more than 98% of on-road transportation emissions in the inventory. That makes commuting and everyday vehicle use central to the city’s longer-term emissions challenge, while building energy and waste remain important parts of the overall calculation.

The inventory does not create a new requirement for residents or businesses. It is a progress report and planning tool, not a new law, project approval, funding decision or mandate.

What the city goals require

Bloomington’s Climate Action Plan calls for reducing community-wide emissions 25% below 2018 levels by 2030. The plan also establishes a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.

The 2024 inventory says Bloomington is on track for the 2030 reduction goal but is behind the trajectory needed to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. That does not mean the 2050 goal has been repealed or abandoned. It means the city’s latest assessment indicates that emissions would need to decline faster to close the long-term gap.

What the inventory means for Bloomington

For households, renters, homeowners and building owners, the stationary-energy share shows why energy use in buildings is central to Bloomington’s emissions profile. For commuters and employers, the transportation figures highlight the importance of passenger vehicles in the city’s climate calculations. Waste and wastewater account for a smaller share but remain part of the annual inventory.

The report can inform future planning and investment discussions, but the materials reviewed do not announce a new project, mandate, cost or deadline tied to the findings.

Future annual inventories will give Bloomington a way to measure whether subsequent actions reduce emissions quickly enough to maintain progress toward 2030 and narrow the gap to the 2050 carbon-neutrality goal.

Sources

• Bloomington to meet 2030 emissions goal
• Bloomington Climate Action Plan
• 2024 Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report

Order No. 202-26-37 took effect July 26 under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act after a request from SPP. It directed SPP to dispatch specified generation units as needed to maintain reliability and authorized the operator to call on qualifying backup generation as a last resort before or during an Energy Emergency Alert Level 3.

The order covered SPP’s broader system footprint, which includes all or parts of 17 states. That footprint is different from the smaller East and West balancing-authority areas used in SPP’s operating notices. Conditions in one balancing area therefore did not mean every state or customer in the wider SPP system faced the same level of risk.

What the order authorized

The order created temporary emergency authority, not a permanent change to electricity-market rules. It allowed SPP to direct specified generation units and, if necessary, qualifying backup resources to support reliability during the most serious emergency conditions.

The authorization did not automatically require every listed generator or backup unit to operate. Independent energy reporting said no generation had been dispatched under the order as of July 27, while SPP and stakeholders assessed which resources could provide additional energy if conditions worsened.

That distinction remains important after expiration. The order itself does not show that backup generators were used, that every authorized resource operated, or that the authority prevented an outage.

What happened operationally

SPP’s public records show that reliability conditions varied over time and across its balancing areas. The West BAA reached Energy Emergency Alert Level 3 on July 20, before the July 26 DOE order took effect. SPP then moved through lower alert levels and said no controlled service interruptions were directed during that event.

SPP defines EEA3 as the highest of its three energy-emergency levels. At that stage, operating reserves are below required minimums, assistance through the reserve-sharing group has begun and the operator foresees or has implemented interruption of firm customer load. An EEA3 is not the same as a regionwide blackout.

The West BAA later remained under a Conservative Operations Advisory because of possible higher-than-expected loads, forced outages, hot temperatures and lower-than-forecast wind and solar output. SPP said the advisory represented stable operating conditions and did not require the public to conserve electricity. On August 3, SPP announced that the advisory would end at midnight on August 4 because conditions had improved.

Earlier reporting from S&P Global said SPP peak demand reached 56.553 gigawatts at 4:50 p.m. on July 27. That figure could have set a new peak, but SPP had not immediately confirmed the record when the report was published. The episode nonetheless showed how rising cooling demand, generator outages and uncertain wind output can tighten operating margins.

What expiration changes

After 11:59 p.m. CDT on August 3, the temporary federal authority in Order No. 202-26-37 was no longer in effect. The Department of Energy’s 2026 order list identifies the order’s expiration date and does not list a later SPP extension or replacement order.

The end of the order does not mean the wider reliability issue has disappeared. It means SPP no longer has that specific temporary federal authorization unless DOE issues another order.

For households and businesses, the practical issue is whether another heat spike leads local utilities or grid operators to issue conservation requests, emergency alerts or controlled-outage warnings. SPP’s regional notices do not determine whether an individual home or business will lose service, so customers should follow their local utility’s instructions.

Why the episode matters beyond SPP

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment identified a broader set of pressures: accelerated demand, rapid growth in large loads, periods of low wind output and heat occurring alongside generator maintenance outages. NERC also said load growth had increased by more than 11 gigawatts from its 2025 summer assessment, even as new solar, battery and natural-gas resources strengthened readiness.

NERC’s assessment does not attribute the specific SPP emergency order to climate change. It does show why heat, demand forecasts, generator availability and variable renewable output are central to summer grid planning across the country.

The next signals to watch are any new DOE order, SPP alert or advisory, outage information and follow-up from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission or NERC. The August 3 expiration ended one temporary federal tool; it did not eliminate the challenge of matching rising electricity demand with dependable supply during hot weather.

Sources

• DOE Order No. 202-26-37
• SPP Current Grid Conditions
• 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment
• S&P Global report on the DOE order

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook on July 7, using a forecast completed July 1. EIA forecasts the U.S. wholesale electricity price at an average of about $45 per megawatthour during summer 2026, down $4 per megawatthour, or roughly 8%, from summer 2025.

The $45 figure is a load-weighted composite forecast based on wholesale hubs tracked by EIA. It is not a residential rate and does not represent what every household will pay. The forecast is also a monthly average: EIA warns that heat waves can cause temporary wholesale price spikes. The agency’s next scheduled outlook is due August 11, 2026.

Why wholesale prices are expected to decline

EIA attributes the expected decline largely to lower natural-gas costs delivered to power plants, particularly in the West. It also points to increased generation from several sources, including hydropower, solar, wind and nuclear power.

The forecast varies sharply by region. EIA forecasts wholesale prices at the Northwest Mid-Columbia hub to fall 46%, from an average of $50 per megawatthour in summer 2025 to about $27 this summer. California prices are forecast to decline 30% to $23 per megawatthour, while Southwest prices are projected to fall 27% to $28. In the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, or MISO, prices are forecast to decline 18%, from $56 to $46 per megawatthour.

EIA’s forecast is not uniformly lower. Wholesale prices in the PJM and ISO New England markets are expected to average about $69 and $64 per megawatthour, respectively, slightly higher than last summer.

Why the wholesale forecast may not reach households

Wholesale electricity is bought and sold on power markets before it is delivered to homes and businesses. A residential bill reflects a broader set of costs. EIA says electricity prices generally account for power-plant expenses as well as the cost to build, operate and maintain transmission and distribution systems. Regulations and local utility structures also affect how costs reach customers.

In some states, utility commissions regulate most retail prices. In others, generation may be exposed to competitive markets while transmission and distribution remain regulated. Utilities may also recover infrastructure, maintenance and other approved expenses separately from the wholesale cost of power.

For scale, EIA reports that the U.S. average residential retail electricity price was 17.3 cents per kilowatthour in 2025 and forecasts an average of 18.3 cents in 2026. Those retail figures are measured in cents per kilowatthour, while the wholesale forecast is measured in dollars per megawatthour; they describe different parts of the electricity system and should not be compared as if they were the same rate.

Usage can matter as much as the rate

The other major variable is consumption. A household that runs its air conditioner more often during a heat wave can use substantially more kilowatthours, even if wholesale prices are lower on average.

EIA says extreme temperatures can increase demand for cooling and heating, while higher demand can push fuel and electricity prices upward. Most residential customers pay rates based on seasonal averages rather than minute-by-minute wholesale prices, although some utilities offer time-of-day pricing.

That creates two separate ways for a summer bill to rise: the retail price per kilowatthour may be higher, and the household may use more kilowatthours. A lower wholesale average does not automatically offset either change.

A separate projection points to higher summer spending

A June report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association and the Center for Energy Poverty and Climate projects average summer residential electricity expenditures of approximately $792 in 2026, up from $717 in 2025. That is a projected increase of 10.5%.

The estimate is a projection, not a final national total, and it does not mean every household will pay more. NEADA and the Center for Energy Poverty and Climate say regional costs vary with climate, electricity prices and baseline cooling demand. Their projection illustrates how higher retail prices and greater air-conditioning use can outweigh lower wholesale prices in a household’s total summer spending.

What households can do now

Households facing high energy costs can check whether they qualify for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program through federal and state channels. The Department of Energy also directs consumers to weatherization assistance, home energy assessments and efficiency upgrades through its Home Upgrades and Energy Savings resources.

Eligibility and available services vary by state and household circumstances. An assessment may help identify insulation, air-sealing, heating or cooling improvements that could reduce future electricity use, but assistance and savings are not guaranteed for every household.

What to watch next

The key indicators over the next several weeks will be actual summer temperatures, regional grid conditions, utility rate developments and EIA’s August 11 outlook. The central distinction remains simple: wholesale prices measure the market cost of electricity, while household bills reflect the retail rate and how much electricity each home consumes.

Sources

• U.S. Energy Information Administration’s July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook
• NEADA and Center for Energy Poverty and Climate cooling outlook
• U.S. Department of Energy Home Upgrades resources

More than 250 people were evacuated by sea on Friday after the fire broke out near the neighboring coastal village of Agios Vasileios, according to The Associated Press. The Greek fire department reported that 325 firefighters, 18 water-dropping planes and 11 helicopters were working against the blaze in the Boeotia area.

Porto Germeno is a popular resort on the Gulf of Corinth, northwest of Athens. Strong winds can push flames rapidly through dry vegetation, carry smoke and embers into new areas, change evacuation needs with little warning and make aircraft operations more difficult.

Why the immediate danger shifted east

The escalation in Greece came as some of the most severe wildfire conditions in western Europe eased or stabilized. Major fires in France and Spain were no longer broadly advancing, while Portugal’s main blaze was reported under control. Those developments reduced some immediate pressure but did not end the danger: flare-ups continued, firefighters remained on high alert and some residents had not yet returned home.

The shift matters because several European countries have faced major fires during the same summer. National crews, aircraft and emergency services can become stretched when evacuations, fire suppression and transport disruptions occur across multiple regions. Stabilization in one country does not remove the operational pressure created by a dangerous fire elsewhere.

How heat and dryness raise fire risk

Copernicus climate data provides broader context without proving that climate change caused the Greek fire. June 2026 was the hottest June on record for western Europe and the second-warmest June globally, the European Union’s climate service reported.

Copernicus also reported widespread dryness, increasingly dry soils across western and central Europe, and heightened drought risk in parts of eastern Europe. Extreme heat and dry vegetation can leave more fuel available to burn and help fires spread faster or burn more intensely. Wind can amplify those conditions by carrying flames and embers into new areas.

The practical consequences extend beyond the fire line. Residents may face short-notice evacuation orders, road closures, smoke exposure and interruptions to local services. Coastal resorts and nearby villages can lose normal road access, while ferries or other sea routes may become part of an emergency evacuation plan rather than ordinary travel.

How European assistance can supplement national crews

The European Union’s civil-protection system allows countries facing emergencies to request help through a network that includes 37 participating countries. Those countries can offer aircraft, helicopters, firefighting teams, equipment or specialists, while the European Commission coordinates and co-finances deployments.

If national offers are insufficient, the EU can draw on the rescEU strategic reserve. The 2026 reserve includes 22 firefighting airplanes and five helicopters, according to the European Commission. The bloc has also used Copernicus emergency mapping and cross-border coordination during the summer’s wildfire response.

These resources do not replace local evacuation instructions or national fire command. They can add aircraft, personnel and shared information when several countries are dealing with dangerous fires at the same time.

What to watch next

The next indicators will be wind conditions, additional evacuation orders, fire containment and access to roads, ferries and airports around affected communities. Further EU assistance may become important if the Greek fire continues to spread or if new fires emerge elsewhere.

Residents and travelers should follow the latest instructions from local authorities and emergency services rather than assume that conditions in one part of Europe apply to another. In a fast-moving wildfire, evacuation, transport and safety guidance can change within hours.

Sources

• Associated Press: Europe’s wildfire crisis eases in west as danger shifts east to Greece
• European Commission Civil Protection: The EU sends planes and firefighters as wildfires ravage France and Spain
• Copernicus: Record heatwave brings hottest June for western Europe