Level 2 does not mean a severe region-wide haze emergency is underway. Under ASMC’s alert system, it means the risk of transboundary haze is increasing. The center considers hotspot activity, observed smoke, persistent dry weather and prevailing winds when assigning the alert level.

Fires are already affecting communities

Associated Press reported that nearly 48,900 hectares of peatland had burned across six fire-prone Indonesian provinces as of Aug. 10, citing Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency. AP reported that West Kalimantan, on Borneo, had the largest affected area.

In Pontianak, the West Kalimantan capital, the city’s Education and Cultural Office ordered schools to suspend in-person classes on Aug. 10 after air quality deteriorated to unhealthy levels. AP also reported that satellite imagery showed smoke drifting from West Kalimantan into neighboring Malaysia on several days during August.

The effects were localized rather than uniform across Indonesia or Malaysia. In Sarawak, Malaysia’s Department of Environment recorded 11 areas with unhealthy air early Aug. 11, and the state government told schools in those areas to halt outdoor activities, according to AP. Smoke movement depends on the location and intensity of fires, wind direction and local weather.

East Java provides another example of the pressure on Indonesian authorities. A wildfire in Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park had affected nearly 900 hectares by Aug. 11, according to AP. Firefighters had mostly contained the blaze but were still working on two remaining hotspots, while the Mount Bromo tourist area remained closed.

Why August and September matter

Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, known as BMKG, said wildfire risk began increasing in July and was expected to peak in August and September 2026. It identified Riau, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Sumatra and Jambi as priority provinces for intensified monitoring and oversight.

BMKG said its preventive measures include monitoring hotspots, wetting vulnerable or previously burned peatlands, maintaining water supplies and carrying out weather-modification operations based on meteorological conditions, groundwater levels in peat areas and fire data. AP separately reported that Indonesia had deployed more than 35 aircraft, including water-bombing helicopters and patrol planes, across Sumatra and Borneo.

What the ASEAN alert is measuring

ASMC’s Aug. 3 alert said satellite surveillance detected moderate smoke haze from clusters of hotspots in western and southern Kalimantan, along with some smoke plumes from southern Sumatra. NOAA-20 detected 185 and 371 hotspots in Kalimantan on Aug. 1 and Aug. 2, respectively, and 26 and 11 hotspots in Sumatra on those dates.

ASMC warned that the situation could deteriorate if dry weather persisted and El Niño conditions continued strengthening. The alert is a regional risk assessment, not a guarantee that every location in Southeast Asia will experience cross-border haze.

El Niño adds a climate risk factor

ASMC’s seasonal outlook, updated July 20, said El Niño conditions were expected to continue through the second half of 2026 and were very likely to become strong in August and September. The center says El Niño typically produces drier-than-average rainfall conditions across much of Southeast Asia, including parts of the Maritime Continent during the June-to-August period.

That forecast does not make El Niño the sole cause of the fires. Ignition, land clearing, plantation practices, peatland management and enforcement are separate questions. El Niño is better understood as a climate factor that can dry vegetation and peat, extend fire-weather conditions and make suppression more difficult. ASMC also cautions that the effects vary by location and season.

Why peat fires can become a cross-border problem

Peat fires can continue smoldering below the surface after visible flames disappear and can reignite if they are not fully extinguished. They also produce dense smoke. When prevailing winds carry that smoke toward neighboring countries, a fire concentrated in one Indonesian province can create air-quality problems across a border.

That does not mean all of Indonesia, Malaysia or Southeast Asia is experiencing unhealthy air. Residents should rely on local air-quality readings and health advisories rather than regional generalizations. The World Health Organization’s air-pollution guidance explains the general health importance of reducing exposure to polluted air, but it is not a measurement of current conditions in Pontianak, Sarawak or any other affected location.

What residents, schools and travelers should watch

People with asthma or other respiratory conditions, older adults and children may need to take extra precautions when local smoke levels worsen. Schools and outdoor employers may restrict activities, while parks and tourist sites can close. Travelers and transport operators should monitor local visibility, air-quality advisories and official operating notices; the sources reviewed here do not establish a region-wide transport disruption.

The next important signals are hotspot counts, rainfall, wind direction, local air-quality readings and decisions by schools, parks and public-health agencies. A temporary fall in hotspots or a short rain event would not necessarily end the season’s risk if peat continues smoldering and dry conditions and El Niño are forecast to persist.

Sources

• ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre alert, Aug. 3, 2026
• Indonesia BMKG preparedness update, July 28, 2026
• Associated Press wildfire report, Aug. 11, 2026

Home Minister Saifuddin Nasution Ismail said Myanmar had committed to accept up to 5,000 of its citizens currently in Malaysia. Malaysia had identified up to 4,000 Myanmar nationals in 19 detention depots who would be moved to one site for security screening and documentation. The number of people potentially included from Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, was not specified.

Who is covered remains unresolved

The central question is whether the arrangement concerns Rohingya refugees specifically or a broader group of Myanmar nationals whose citizenship can be verified.

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim described the people involved as Rohingya refugees. Saifuddin used broader language, referring to Myanmar nationals with refugee status without explicitly identifying all 5,000 people as Rohingya.

Myanmar officials said the arrangement applies only to verified Myanmar nationals held in Malaysian detention centers. They rejected the idea that Myanmar had agreed to accept Rohingya as a recognized ethnic group. Myanmar does not recognize the Rohingya among its 135 officially recognized ethnic minorities.

That distinction could affect identity verification, legal status and the protection available to people who cannot establish citizenship under Myanmar’s system. The Associated Press reported that Myanmar officials said the two sides were still coordinating the number and timing of any returns.

Screening does not establish safe return

UNHCR’s 2025 Myanmar situation overview, published in 2026, says the conditions required for a safe, voluntary, dignified and sustainable return remained absent. It cites continuing conflict, widespread rights violations and the continued denial of legal status for Rohingya communities.

That assessment does not determine the outcome of Malaysia’s screening process, but it provides the protection context against which any proposed return would be assessed. A security or citizenship check can address administrative identity questions; it does not by itself establish that a person can return safely or voluntarily.

For Rohingya people, the issue is especially significant because Myanmar’s refusal to recognize their claimed identity and legal status can make documentation and citizenship verification central parts of any return process. Myanmar’s position leaves unresolved how people who identify as Rohingya would be treated if they lack documents or if Myanmar rejects their claimed identity.

Malaysia’s refugee population adds context

UNHCR said that, as of the end of February 2026, about 215,600 refugees and asylum-seekers were registered with the agency in Malaysia. About 193,824 were from Myanmar, including approximately 126,144 Rohingya, 15,774 Chins and 33,002 people from other ethnic groups in conflict-affected areas of Myanmar.

Those figures show the scale of Malaysia’s refugee population, but they do not establish that everyone registered with UNHCR is part of the proposed return process. The people identified for screening are being addressed through Malaysia’s detention and identity-verification process, while the arrangement’s eligibility rules remain under discussion.

What happens next

Malaysia’s foreign ministry is expected to handle the next stage with Myanmar. The key questions are the final number of people considered eligible, the results of identity verification, whether returns are voluntary, the timing of any transfer and whether UNHCR or another independent body will be able to monitor protection safeguards.

For now, Malaysia has started screening, not completed a return. The proposed 5,000-person figure is an upper limit rather than a confirmed total, and the disagreement over whether the group includes Rohingya refugees or only verified Myanmar nationals remains unresolved.

Sources

• Associated Press: Malaysia begins screening 5,000 refugees for their planned return to Myanmar
• UNHCR Global Report 2025: Myanmar situation overview