In Advisory No. 7, issued at 11 p.m. HST Friday, the National Hurricane Center said Lowell was near 12.6 degrees north and 134.8 degrees west, about 1,430 miles east-southeast of Hilo. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving west at about 8 mph.

What changed in the latest Lowell advisory

The hurricane center expects Lowell to continue generally westward during the weekend and into early next week, with a gradual increase in forward speed. It forecast gradual strengthening and said Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday, August 31.

That classification remains a forecast, not a confirmed outcome. The storm is still affected by moderate easterly wind shear and nearby dry air, which the hurricane center said could limit short-term strengthening. Conditions may become more favorable by early next week.

For now, the official advisory says there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect and no hazards affecting land. Hawaii is not under a hurricane watch or warning because of Lowell.

Why Hawaii forecasters are watching

The National Weather Service office in Honolulu said in a Friday, August 28, discussion that Lowell would likely approach the islands from the east-southeast through next week. But the discussion also emphasized that forecast guidance has been inconsistent from one model run to another, with substantial spread among deterministic and ensemble guidance.

The National Hurricane Center said track uncertainty increases considerably after the weekend. One factor is the possible influence of Tropical Storm Karina, which is northeast of Lowell and could affect Lowell’s steering flow. The guidance differs on both the storm’s forward speed and its position by about day five.

A possible approach is not a predicted landfall or direct hit. Current forecasts do not establish that Lowell will reach Hawaii, and they do not call for evacuations. Later forecast cycles may materially change the projected path.

The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center’s Saturday, August 29, extended discussion said higher moisture ahead of Lowell could reach at least the Big Island and Maui by Wednesday in one model, while another model was slower. It also said the spread in the timing and location of the systems’ eventual tracks remains high.

What Hawaii faces now

The immediate weather pattern across Hawaii remains dominated by moderate to locally breezy trade winds, generally dry conditions and isolated windward and upslope showers, according to the Honolulu forecast discussion.

A Small Craft Advisory remained in effect for specified waters around Maui County and the Big Island because of the existing trade-wind pattern. That marine advisory is not being attributed to Lowell. Mariners should rely on the latest local marine forecasts for wind, chop and visibility conditions.

Forecasters expect conditions to become wetter around the middle of next week if deeper moisture reaches the islands. The amount and location of any rainfall will depend partly on the future tracks and intensity of Lowell and Karina.

Karina is a separate concern for Mexico’s coast

As of 2 a.m. PDT Saturday, August 29, Tropical Storm Karina had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and was about 730 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The storm was moving northwest near 12 mph, with a more westerly motion expected over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center forecast Karina to become a hurricane later Saturday and said it could become a major hurricane early next week. Those classifications also remain forecasts, not completed developments.

No coastal watches or warnings were in effect for Karina. However, swells generated by the storm were expected to affect portions of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula during the weekend, creating potentially life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.

What residents, mariners and travelers should monitor

Hawaii residents should follow updates from the National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, the National Weather Service in Honolulu and local emergency-management agencies rather than relying on speculative track maps.

Mariners should continue checking official marine advisories. Travelers should monitor airline, airport and local transportation updates if Lowell’s forecast shifts closer to the islands.

The key distinction is between a watched possibility and a confirmed hazard: Lowell is being monitored because of its westward motion and possible strengthening, but Hawaii does not currently have a confirmed tropical-storm or hurricane threat from the system. The next National Hurricane Center and local Honolulu updates will be important because the forecast becomes less certain beyond the weekend.

Sources

• National Hurricane Center Lowell Public Advisory No. 7
• National Weather Service Honolulu Area Forecast Discussion

NOAA’s outlook gives the Atlantic a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season. The forecast range calls for 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. The Atlantic season runs from June 1 through November 30.

Why a quieter forecast is not a low-risk forecast

NOAA says the seasonal outlook is not a landfall forecast. It does not predict impacts for any specific state, coastline, or city. The agency also warns that it only takes one hurricane or tropical storm to cause a disaster. That is the key takeaway for households, businesses, and local governments: seasonal averages do not stop storm surge, flash flooding, wind damage, power outages, or long recovery periods.

For readers, the practical message is simple. Coastal communities should review evacuation plans, and inland areas should not ignore flood risk. A storm does not have to be a major hurricane to knock out electricity, close roads, disrupt schools, or force expensive repairs. Residents should make sure insurance coverage, emergency supplies, medications, chargers, and backup plans are in place before the season gets fully underway.

The Pacific side is busier

NOAA’s eastern Pacific outlook points the other way. The agency says an above-normal season is most likely there, and its central Pacific outlook is also above normal. That matters most for Hawaii and other Pacific-facing U.S. interests, where tropical systems can bring wind, rain, surf, and travel disruptions even when they stay far from the mainland.

The National Hurricane Center is also signaling the seasonal transition point: June 1 is the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it is the time when Pacific hurricane monitoring becomes part of the regular summer weather picture too.

What to watch next

The immediate watch item is not a single forecast number. It is whether families, schools, employers, and local agencies have already done the unglamorous work of preparing. NOAA’s seasonal outlook gives a broad read on the year ahead, but landfall threats will still depend on the weather patterns around each storm as it forms and moves.

For now, the forecast says the Atlantic may be quieter than usual. It does not say the coast is off the hook.

Sources

• NOAA Atlantic hurricane outlook
• National Hurricane Center