The forecast gives governments, humanitarian agencies, agriculture and health authorities a current window to prepare for conditions that can disrupt climate-sensitive activities and increase pressure on emergency planning. It is not, however, a guarantee that a particular country will experience a specific disaster.

A rapid shift in the Pacific

El Niño is a climate pattern centered on unusually warm ocean conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific. In its July 3 assessment, the WMO said forecast models pointed to rapid strengthening toward a strong El Niño event in the July–September period.

The organization said projected seasonal sea-surface-temperature anomalies were above 2°C in key monitoring regions. That figure describes conditions in the monitored Pacific waters; it should not be treated as a direct forecast of local air temperatures or as a guarantee of a heatwave in any particular location.

A WMO global seasonal climate update published May 20 had already forecast a rapid transition to strong El Niño conditions. For June–August 2026, the model ensemble projected an approximately 1.8°C seasonal-average anomaly and reported high forecast confidence at that stage.

Why the warning matters

El Niño can alter weather patterns well beyond the tropical Pacific. The WMO said the developing event increases the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events across many parts of the world.

The forecast therefore matters less as a prediction of one named disaster than as an early planning signal. Governments can use the warning when reviewing preparedness, while humanitarian agencies can strengthen climate-information and early-warning support for communities that may face elevated weather risks.

Agriculture and health are among the sectors identified as relevant to the warning. Changes in heat, rainfall and drought risk can affect planning in climate-sensitive sectors, although the WMO’s assessment does not provide a single global estimate for casualties or economic damage.

What is known—and what is not

The WMO’s language concerns increased likelihood, not certainty. The assessment does not identify a guaranteed heatwave, drought or flood for a particular country, and it does not attribute any specific disaster to the developing El Niño.

Local effects will depend on how the broader climate pattern interacts with regional conditions. The available forecast establishes a global risk signal and a period of concern, but not a precise list of locations that will experience extreme weather.

What happens next

The WMO said it was expanding coordination, climate-information services and early-warning support as the forecast develops. The key forecast window is July–September 2026, when the organization expects the event to strengthen toward the strong category.

For governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors, the immediate next step is preparation rather than response to a confirmed disaster. The WMO’s warning provides time to assess risks and use updated climate information as conditions in the Pacific evolve.

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management announced on July 16, 2026, that it had completed an environmental assessment and made a Proposed Leasing Notice available for mineral exploration in federal waters near the territory. The notice was published in the Federal Register on July 17.

A final leasing notice and sale date have not been issued. If BOEM proceeds, the agency must provide at least 30 days’ notice before any sale.

What the proposed leases would cover

BOEM’s proposal could involve up to two leases covering approximately 16.6 million acres each. An alternative structure would use five smaller leases.

The leases would initially allow activities such as bathymetric mapping, geological and geophysical surveys, biological sampling, and oceanographic measurements. The purpose would be to learn more about potential mineral deposits and the surrounding seafloor.

That is different from approving a mine. The proposed leases would not permit commercial extraction of minerals. A company seeking to move beyond preliminary exploration would need to submit a separate delineation, testing, or mining plan. BOEM approval and additional environmental review would also be required, according to the agency’s environmental assessment.

Why the environmental questions remain unsettled

BOEM’s assessment concludes that the proposed preliminary activities are not expected to cause substantial adverse impacts if required safeguards are followed. At the same time, the agency identifies major gaps in knowledge about deep-ocean biodiversity, ecological functions, and baseline conditions, particularly at abyssal depths.

That uncertainty is central to the debate. Surveys and limited sampling could provide information needed for future decisions, but they could also disturb parts of an ecosystem that remain poorly studied. The assessment does not establish that commercial mining would be environmentally safe or that it will ultimately proceed.

American Samoa’s territorial position

The proposal also creates a political tension between federal mineral policy and the territorial government’s stated opposition. The American Samoa government lists Executive Order 006-2024, which established a moratorium on deep-seabed mining exploration and exploitation activities under territorial authority.

The order applies to the territory’s jurisdiction and does not automatically control federal waters on the Outer Continental Shelf. That distinction means the territorial moratorium and the federal leasing process can exist at the same time, even though they reflect sharply different policy positions.

The Associated Press reported that the proposal has drawn opposition from residents and territorial officials, adding a local political dimension to the federal process.

How international rules fit in

The American Samoa proposal should not be confused with mining in international waters. The International Seabed Authority governs mineral activities in the international seabed area beyond national jurisdiction. The ISA says exploration contracts exist, but commercial exploitation in international waters has not been approved.

For now, the immediate change is procedural: BOEM has proposed a federal leasing step and completed an environmental assessment. The next major milestones are a final leasing notice, any decision to hold a sale, and—if exploration later produces a commercial proposal—separate plans and environmental reviews for mining itself.

Sources

• Bureau of Ocean Energy Management
• Associated Press
• American Samoa Government
• International Seabed Authority