U.S. population growth slows as net migration falls sharply
The U.S. population reached 341.8 million by July 1, 2025, but population growth slowed sharply as net international migration fell, according to Census Bureau estimates released January 27, 2026.
The nation added 1.8 million people, or 0.5%, between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025. That was down from an increase of about 3.2 million people, or 1.0%, during the previous estimate year.
The change matters beyond immigration policy. Population growth affects how employers plan for workers, how school systems forecast enrollment, how housing officials estimate demand and how public agencies plan services and infrastructure.
Migration drove the slowdown
Net international migration fell from 2.7 million in the prior estimate year to 1.3 million between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025. The Census Bureau said the decline was the main reason for the slower national growth rate.
Net international migration is not the same as the number of people entering the country. It is the net change from international movement: people moving into the United States minus people moving out. The Census Bureau said the decline reflected both reduced immigration and increased emigration.
The estimates also do not distinguish between legal and unauthorized migration. They measure population change rather than providing a direct count of entries under a particular immigration category.
If current trends continue, the bureau projects net international migration could fall to approximately 321,000 during the estimate year ending June 30, 2026. That figure is conditional, not a final July 1, 2026 count, and could change as new data become available.
Births and deaths changed less
Natural increase — births minus deaths — was about 519,000 during the latest estimate year, roughly similar to the prior year. That component remains well below levels recorded in earlier decades. Natural increase was about 1.1 million in 2017 and ranged from 1.6 million to 1.9 million during the 2000-to-2010 decade.
The figures therefore point to a specific demographic shift: the recent slowdown was driven mainly by migration, not by a sudden change in births and deaths.
Growth remains uneven across the country
South Carolina was the fastest-growing state by percentage, adding 79,958 residents for a 1.5% increase. Idaho grew 1.4%, followed by North Carolina at 1.3%.
Thirty-one states and the District of Columbia had positive net domestic migration, meaning more people moved in from other U.S. states than moved out. Five states — California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont and West Virginia — lost population.
All four Census regions still grew, but at slower rates. The South grew 0.9%, down from 1.4% in the previous estimate year. Growth in the Northeast slowed from 0.8% to 0.2%.
How to interpret the estimates
The 2025 estimate period covers July 1, 2024, through June 30, 2025. It spans different immigration-policy periods, so the figures should not be treated as a clean measure of any single administration’s policies.
The Census Bureau made methodological improvements, including the use of additional administrative data and changes to how short-term migration trends are projected. The bureau also revised the historical time series as part of the Vintage 2025 release, so year-to-year comparisons should be made within that vintage.
These estimates are produced annually from data on births, deaths and migration to calculate population change since the 2020 Census. They are different from the once-a-decade census, which is used for congressional apportionment and other legal purposes.
What to watch next
Employers, school districts, housing planners and government agencies will be watching whether slower international migration persists and how domestic migration changes the distribution of growth among states. The estimates identify planning issues to monitor; they do not by themselves establish direct effects on wages, school enrollment, housing prices or government budgets.
The Census Bureau’s schedule lists December 2026 for the next national and state population estimates and components of population change, based on July 1, 2026, data. Until then, the 321,000 projection should be read as a warning about a possible further slowdown, not as a settled result.
Sources
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