UNICEF: Middle East Conflict Could Push 23.4 Million Children Into Poverty

UNICEF says a prolonged Middle East conflict and related shipping disruptions could push up to 23.4 million additional children into monetary poverty by the end of 2026. That is the upper-bound severe-scenario projection, not a confirmed count of children already pushed below a poverty line.

The analysis released by UNICEF on July 15, 2026, models how conflict-linked economic shocks could affect children in more than 167 countries. Its adverse scenario, representing a moderate shock, projects that 18.3 million additional children could enter monetary poverty by the end of 2026. The severe scenario projects up to 23.4 million if disruptions are stronger and last longer.

How a regional conflict can reach families far away

UNICEF identifies three main pathways. First, higher food, fuel and energy costs reduce household purchasing power. Families that already spend most of their income on essentials have less room to absorb price increases.

Second, rising costs can make essential services harder for families to reach or for governments and aid agencies to provide. UNICEF points to health care, education, nutrition and child protection as services that can come under pressure. Third, governments facing higher import bills, weaker economic activity or debt constraints may have less fiscal space to keep those services funded.

Shipping disruption is part of the economic mechanism examined by UNICEF. The report links the shock to hostilities and disruptions associated with the Strait of Hormuz, a major energy-shipping route. Reuters reported on July 17 that attacks, vessel seizures and maritime-security concerns were affecting shipping around the strait and other regional chokepoints. That reporting helps explain how conflict could transmit into fuel, food and transport costs; it does not establish that UNICEF’s projected poverty increase has already occurred.

Examples from Somalia, Ethiopia and Nigeria

UNICEF cites several country examples. Fuel prices in Mogadishu more than doubled, increasing the cost of food, water, transport and humanitarian assistance as Somalia faced a deepening malnutrition crisis. In Ethiopia, diesel prices rose 31%, while humanitarian fuel costs increased by 50% to 70%, making aid delivery more expensive in hard-to-reach communities.

In Nigeria, low-income households spend roughly 60% to 70% of their income on food and transport. That leaves families especially exposed to price shocks. UNICEF also reports rising prices for staple foods in Bangladesh and estimates that about 1.2 million more people there could fall into poverty under the modeled conditions.

Why children are especially exposed

UNICEF says Asia and Africa account for about 80% of the projected global increase. The regions combine high baseline poverty with vulnerability to external shocks, including changes in food and energy prices.

World Bank data show why a new shock could have an outsized effect on children. In 2024, an estimated 412 million children aged 17 or younger lived in households surviving on less than $3 per person per day, the extreme-poverty line used for low-income countries. Children represented more than half of the world’s population in extreme poverty even though they made up about 30% of the global population. The World Bank says child poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and fragile or conflict-affected places.

UNICEF assesses monetary poverty using international poverty lines of $3.00 and $4.20 per person per day, corresponding to low-income and lower-middle-income standards. National poverty lines are also used where adequate official data permit.

What UNICEF wants governments to do

UNICEF is calling on national governments, donors and international financial institutions to protect funding for health, nutrition, education and child-protection services. It also recommends sustaining social-protection systems, including child-sensitive cash transfers, before subsidies are removed; keeping essential services affordable through spending protections that account for inflation; and expanding fiscal space through measures such as debt-service suspension or restructuring where debt payments crowd out spending on children.

The organization also urges governments to strengthen child-focused preparedness systems so assistance can reach families quickly when new shocks occur.

What the estimate does—and does not—say

The 18.3 million and 23.4 million figures are forward-looking scenarios, not measured totals. The eventual outcome will depend on the conflict’s duration and severity, shipping conditions, food and energy prices, economic activity and the policy response.

UNICEF did not publish a separate Middle East and North Africa total because ongoing conflict and data limitations make that estimate unreliable. Only a fraction of Middle Eastern countries are included in the global totals; where data allow, covered countries are reported within their respective continental aggregates. The report therefore describes a global risk pathway, not an equal or already measurable effect in every country.

Sources

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