Conflict and Energy Shocks Threaten Farm Inputs and Global Hunger Gains

Global hunger declined for a third consecutive year in 2025, but a new United Nations assessment warns that conflict-driven energy, fertilizer and shipping disruptions could weaken that progress by raising costs for farmers and households.

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 report, released July 21 by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO, estimates that 645 million people, or 7.8% of the global population, were chronically undernourished in 2025. That was down from 8.1% in 2024 and 8.6% in 2022.

Progress remains uneven

The improvement has not been shared equally. Africa had approximately 309 million people facing chronic hunger in 2025, compared with about 292 million in Asia. Africa’s share of people facing hunger also eased slightly, but its rapidly growing population means it carries the largest absolute regional burden.

A broader measure shows why the headline hunger figure is not the whole story. About 2.1 billion people, or 25.8% of the world’s population, experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2025. That means they sometimes had to reduce the quality or quantity of food they ate. Food insecurity can therefore worsen through reduced diet quality or purchasing power before a change is fully reflected in chronic-hunger estimates.

What the conflict scenario shows

The report models how the Middle East conflict could affect hunger through food inflation linked to higher energy and fertilizer prices. In a pre-conflict comparison scenario, about 503 million people would face hunger in 2030. Depending on how long the conflict affects food inflation, the modeled total rises to roughly 510 million to 520 million.

Those figures are scenarios, not confirmed forecasts. The projection is conditional on the duration and inflationary effects of the conflict, and the report says it does not include potential weather extremes such as El Niño in 2026 and 2027.

IFAD President Alvaro Lario separately told The Associated Press in a July 10 interview that prolonged geopolitical and energy shocks could place an additional 9 million to 18 million people at risk of hunger. That estimate is distinct from the SOFI model and represents his assessment of the risks if disruptions persist.

How energy markets reach farms

The transmission path begins with energy. Natural gas is a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, so higher gas costs can tighten fertilizer markets. Diesel prices affect irrigation pumps, tractors, harvesting equipment and the trucks that move crops to storage, processors and markets.

Shipping disruption adds another layer. Delays or higher insurance and fuel costs can make imported food and farm inputs more expensive, particularly for countries that depend on overseas supplies. Currency weakness or higher import bills can further reduce purchasing power.

The World Bank reported that global fertilizer prices rose 35% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. It said fertilizer markets had not fully stabilized and that the effects of reduced applications earlier in the season might become visible later in harvest outcomes. The figure indicates market pressure; it does not establish a fixed future change in yields or retail prices.

Why small farmers are exposed

Small-scale farmers often operate with thin margins and limited access to credit, storage, irrigation and reliable transport. When fertilizer or fuel costs rise, they may apply less fertilizer, delay planting, reduce cultivated acreage or sell crops sooner than planned.

Those decisions can protect cash flow in the short term but weaken yields, farm income and local food supplies. The effects differ by crop, season, import dependence, transport access and public support, so the shock will not be the same in every country.

Why households feel the pressure

Higher farm and logistics costs can pass through to consumers, especially in food-importing countries. The SOFI report estimates that the average global cost of a healthy diet reached 4.28 purchasing-power-parity dollars per person per day in 2025. About 2.69 billion people still could not afford a healthy diet, including 66.6% of Africa’s population.

That makes affordability as important as physical food availability. A country may have enough staple supplies while families still cut back on fruits, vegetables, animal-source foods or other nutritious items because those foods are too expensive.

The indicators to watch are fertilizer prices, fuel costs, shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, import bills, planting decisions, crop yields and humanitarian funding. The UN data shows that progress is possible. It also shows how quickly that progress can become fragile when conflict reaches the energy and input markets on which rural economies depend.

Sources

Discover more from Interactive News

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.