WMO Warns on July 3 That El Niño Is Strengthening, Raising Global Extreme-Weather Risks

The World Meteorological Organization said July 3 that El Niño conditions had developed in the tropical Pacific and were forecast to strengthen rapidly during July-September 2026. The warning raises the likelihood of heatwaves, drought, heavy rainfall, flooding and other extreme weather across multiple regions.

The forecast is not a prediction that every region will experience the same conditions, or that a particular disaster will occur. The WMO said El Niño’s regional effects vary and that the climate pattern is not the sole determinant of local weather. But the outlook gives governments and humanitarian agencies a near-term window to prepare for heightened risks.

What the WMO forecast says

El Niño is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern linked to conditions in the tropical Pacific and to shifts in weather patterns around the world. In its July update, the WMO said seasonal-average sea-surface-temperature anomalies were expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions during the forecast period.

The organization described the expected change as a rapid strengthening. Its outlook identifies an increased likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme events, rather than a guaranteed outcome in any one location.

An earlier WMO seasonal update, issued May 20, forecast a rapid transition toward a strong El Niño event. That update also identified a possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase and linked the broader climate outlook to risks involving heat, flooding, drought, agriculture, health and energy systems.

Why the warning matters

Heat, water and food systems can be affected differently from one region to another. A higher probability of extreme heat can increase pressure on public-health systems and energy demand. Drought can strain water supplies and agriculture, while heavy rainfall and flooding can create emergency-response needs and disrupt essential services.

The WMO’s warning therefore matters less as a forecast of one named disaster than as a planning signal. Governments, humanitarian agencies, agriculture officials and health authorities can use seasonal climate information to review preparedness, communicate risks and position early-warning support before hazards develop.

The potential effects are global because the signal originates in tropical Pacific ocean conditions while the projections cover worldwide seasonal climate patterns. The WMO said it was coordinating climate information and early-warning support for governments, humanitarian agencies, agriculture and health sectors.

What happens next

The immediate reference period is July through September 2026, when the WMO expects the El Niño conditions to strengthen rapidly. The organization’s June 2 communication gave an 80 percent likelihood of El Niño during June-August 2026 and put the probability of continuation through at least November near or above 90 percent. That same outlook projected above-normal temperatures across nearly the entire globe.

Those probabilities describe risk, not certainty. Local weather will still depend on other atmospheric and oceanic factors, and the WMO cautioned that El Niño does not produce identical impacts everywhere. The next practical step is continued use of climate information and early-warning coordination as governments and response agencies prepare for the range of possible heat, drought, rainfall and flooding outcomes.

For people and institutions outside the tropical Pacific, the message is that a developing ocean pattern may alter the odds of disruptive weather well beyond its origin. The WMO’s July 3 update provides advance notice, but it does not replace local forecasts or establish that any specific event has been caused by El Niño.