NOAA Confirms El Niño Has Emerged, With Strong Event Possible by Late 2026

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center confirmed on July 9, 2026, that El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific and are strengthening. The agency’s ENSO Alert System was at El Niño Advisory, moving the development beyond an earlier forecast and into a confirmed climate-state change.

NOAA gave El Niño a 97% chance of persisting through early spring 2027 and said the event is expected to strengthen through the end of 2026. The latest weekly sea-surface-temperature anomaly was plus 1.2 degrees Celsius in the Niño-3.4 region, plus 0.5 degrees in Niño-4 and plus 2.7 degrees in Niño-1+2.

NOAA estimated an 81% chance that El Niño will reach the “very strong” category during October–December 2026. If that occurs, the event could rank among the largest El Niño episodes in the historical record dating to 1950. El Niño can shift the odds of heat, rainfall and other climate extremes across regions, while the World Meteorological Organization said in June that the pattern could influence global temperature and rainfall. NOAA cautioned that stronger events tilt the odds toward expected regional climate outcomes but do not guarantee typical effects everywhere. The agency’s next scheduled diagnostic discussion is Aug. 13, 2026.