WMO Says El Niño Has Developed, Forecasts Strong Event Through 2026

The World Meteorological Organization said July 3, 2026, that El Niño conditions had developed in the tropical Pacific and were expected to strengthen rapidly during July-September. The agency said the event could intensify into a strong El Niño, with seasonal-average sea-surface-temperature anomalies projected to exceed 2°C in key central and eastern equatorial Pacific monitoring regions.

El Niño is a major driver of global temperature and rainfall patterns. WMO said the strengthening forecast increased the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather in many parts of the world. The forecast raises regional risks rather than determining the outcome of every individual weather event.

The effects are already being highlighted for Southeast Asia. An ASEAN climate outlook published June 10 forecast above-normal temperatures across most of the region and below-normal rainfall over much of the Maritime Continent, including southern Philippines, Brunei Darussalam and Singapore. Most models anticipated continued El Niño strengthening after the June-August outlook period, with some projecting strong to very strong conditions later in 2026.

WMO said its climate-information and early-warning community was increasing coordination and support for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors as the event develops. The agency’s seasonal update projected an upward intensification trend through boreal autumn, while regional effects remain dependent on local conditions.