BLS projects 5.9 million U.S. jobs added by 2035

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday, August 27, 2026, that total U.S. employment is projected to rise from 170.3 million jobs in 2025 to 176.2 million in 2035. That would add 5.9 million jobs, or 3.5% growth over the decade.

The projected increase is considerably slower than the 10.9% growth recorded from 2015 to 2025. The numbers describe a long-term structural scenario under BLS assumptions, not a promise that employers will hire at those levels.

Health care accounts for the largest share of projected gains

Private health care and social assistance is projected to add more than 2.2 million jobs through 2035, about 37% of all projected new jobs. BLS attributes much of that growth to population aging, the prevalence of chronic conditions and rising demand for home-based care.

Services for the elderly and people with disabilities alone are projected to add 625,400 jobs. Health care support occupations are projected to grow 13.3%, while health care practitioners and technical occupations are projected to grow 8.0%. Together, those two occupational groups are expected to account for nearly one-third of all new jobs.

Fast growth does not always mean many jobs

Utilities has the fastest projected growth among the major industry sectors, at 9.8%. Because the sector has a relatively small employment base, however, that rate translates to about 58,800 additional jobs.

Professional, scientific and technical services are projected to grow 8.6%, adding about 926,700 jobs. BLS links that expansion to demand for artificial-intelligence systems, research and development, and related consulting services.

Computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting and related services are projected to grow 25.1%, adding 120,400 jobs. The projection reflects demand for data centers and other infrastructure, along with wider use of AI-based systems.

Technology- and energy-related occupations also show high percentage growth. Solar photovoltaic installers are projected to grow 36.5%, and wind turbine service technicians 29.5%. Together, however, the two occupations are expected to add fewer than 15,000 jobs by 2035 because they start from relatively small employment bases.

Where BLS sees pressure

Federal government employment is projected to decline 3.4%, while retail trade is projected to decline 0.2%, or about 27,500 jobs. BLS says e-commerce is expected to continue limiting employment in retail outlets even as online shipments support transportation and warehousing jobs, which are projected to grow 3.1%.

Office and administrative support occupations are projected to decline 4.0%, a loss of about 752,100 jobs, the largest decline among major occupational groups. Sales and related occupations are projected to fall 1.4%, and production occupations 0.4%.

BLS connects those trends to automation, AI tools, e-commerce and automated manufacturing processes. A projected decline does not mean every worker in an occupation will lose a job or that the change will happen immediately. It describes the expected direction of total employment across the occupation under the agency’s assumptions.

What the projections do—and do not—say

BLS says its Employment Projections program focuses on long-term structural trends and does not attempt to predict future recessions or other business-cycle activity. The agency models a potential scenario based on assumptions about labor supply, the macroeconomy, industry output, technology and occupational employment.

BLS also assumes labor-market equilibrium in the projected year. As a result, it does not project an overall labor shortage or surplus; labor supply and employment are linked within the framework.

AI effects remain especially uncertain. BLS says its adjustments for emerging technologies are generally conservative and based on available evidence. The agency also notes that technology has historically changed jobs gradually, often altering the tasks workers perform rather than eliminating an occupation outright.

Current conditions should not be confused with the decade-long outlook. BLS reported that July payroll employment declined by 23,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. On August 28, BLS also reported a preliminary downward benchmark revision of 79,000 jobs to March 2026 total nonfarm employment. Those are current-data developments, while the new projections describe a possible employment structure in 2035.

Associated Press reporting said weekly unemployment claims remained low and cited a survey of economists expecting employers to add 65,000 jobs in August. That estimate is not an official jobs result. BLS has scheduled the official August 2026 Employment Situation report for September 4.

How workers can use the data

People considering a career change should compare projected growth with the size of an occupation, typical wages, education requirements, training costs and the work itself. A high percentage-growth figure may represent only a modest number of jobs, while a slower-growing field may offer more openings because its employment base is much larger.

The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook provides occupation-specific information on education, training, wages, work activities and the 2025-35 outlook. Readers can use it to compare alternatives before paying for a program or making a major career change.

The next major labor-market checkpoint is the official August 2026 Employment Situation report, scheduled for September 4 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. That report will describe current employment conditions; the new projections are intended to show how the structure of the labor market could develop through 2035.

Sources

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