NOAA says the Lower 48 just had its hottest summer on record
The contiguous United States had its hottest meteorological summer on record, NOAA reported September 9, as drought expanded sharply and significant wildfire potential remained above average in several regions.
June through August averaged 74.4°F across the Lower 48, NOAA said. That was 0.4°F above the previous records set in 1936 and 2021. The finding covers the contiguous United States, not Alaska and Hawaii.
What NOAA measured
August was also the hottest August in NOAA’s 132-year record, averaging 75.6°F. The average daytime high reached 88.6°F, another national record.
Most of the contiguous United States experienced above- or much-above-average temperatures. Record warmth was widespread across the West, Southwest, southern Rockies, southwestern Plains and southern Florida. California, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado each recorded their warmest August average temperature on record.
Nighttime temperatures were also unusually high. Average nighttime lows were record warm in California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico and Colorado. Warm nights can reduce the time available for people and buildings to cool down, increasing heat exposure for older adults, people with certain health conditions, outdoor workers and households without reliable air conditioning.
Rainfall was uneven, and drought spread
Precipitation varied sharply by region. Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley received much-above-average rain, while portions of the West, Upper Midwest and the broad area from the southern Rockies and southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley were drier than normal.
Indiana and Ohio recorded their wettest August on record, with totals about twice their average. Texas and Oklahoma received less than 30% of their average August precipitation. California had its fifth-driest summer on record and its driest since 2002.
According to the September 1 U.S. Drought Monitor, drought covered 59.1% of the contiguous United States. That was an increase of about 10.5 percentage points from early August. Drought persisted across much of the interior West and expanded or intensified across parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South.
For residents and public agencies, those conditions can mean greater water demand, added pressure on agricultural operations and more difficult decisions for water managers. NOAA identified above-average September significant wildfire potential in parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin, portions of the Upper Midwest, much of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, parts of southern Florida and Puerto Rico. That outlook describes elevated potential; it is not a report of active fires or an evacuation notice.
What fall may bring
NOAA’s September monthly outlook favors above-average temperatures across much of the contiguous United States, including the Southwest, Rockies, Great Lakes, Gulf Coast and Southeast. NOAA’s September-through-November seasonal outlook also favors above-normal temperatures across much of the western and central United States, the Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Florida and coastal parts of the Southeast and Gulf.
Precipitation prospects are more mixed. The seasonal outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions from the Southwest toward the central and southern High Plains and in parts of the Southeast. It gives a modest tilt toward drier conditions in parts of the Great Lakes, Northeast, northern and eastern Washington, northern Idaho and northwestern Montana. NOAA’s September drought outlook calls for drought persistence in parts of the Great Basin, Northwest, northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with further development possible from the southern and central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley.
These are probabilities, not guarantees. NOAA says a strengthening El Niño is an important factor, but its effects on fall temperatures are less predictable than its expected influence during winter. Recent warming trends and computer-model guidance also shaped the seasonal forecast.
What to watch next
Residents should monitor updated drought maps, local National Weather Service heat advisories, fire restrictions and public-health guidance. Farmers, utilities and water managers will be watching whether forecast precipitation improves drought conditions or arrives unevenly enough to leave some areas under stress.
The record-hot summer is an observed national climate result. Conditions after September 14, 2026, remain forecast-dependent and can vary sharply by region.
Sources
- NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information: August 2026 U.S. climate report
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal outlook discussion
- Associated Press: Global heat is stuck on high
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