Census survey shows business cost pressure despite cautious outlook

A new Census Bureau survey shows U.S. employer businesses facing continued input-cost pressure while maintaining a cautiously positive outlook for performance, demand and staffing.

The latest Business Trends and Outlook Survey, or BTOS, was released September 10, 2026, with data current through September 6. It offers a near-real-time snapshot of what businesses reported during the previous two weeks and what they expect over the next six months.

What the latest numbers show

For current conditions, the national BTOS indexes were 57.2 for performance, 42.9 for revenue, 48.1 for employees, 46.6 for hours worked and 70.1 for input prices.

The six-month outlook readings were 55.7 for future performance, 52.3 for future demand, 51.0 for future employees, 49.9 for future hours and 76.3 for future input prices.

Input prices were the clearest cost concern in the snapshot. The current input-price reading was 70.1, and the six-month outlook reading was 76.3. Those figures indicate that the balance of businesses reporting increases or expecting increases was stronger than the balance reporting decreases or expecting decreases. They do not state how many dollars costs rose or predict that every company will raise consumer prices.

The performance, demand and staffing readings remained above the midpoint of the directional scale. The future-hours reading was closer to the midpoint, suggesting a less pronounced outlook for hours than for performance or demand. The results describe the balance of business responses, not the size of any expected change.

How to read the indexes

BTOS figures are survey-based directional measures. They are not percentages, dollar amounts, official inflation rates, payroll counts, growth rates or guaranteed forecasts.

A higher reading generally means more businesses reported improving conditions, or expected improvement, than reported deterioration. A positive future-employees reading does not mean a specific number of jobs will be added. It means the balance of businesses expecting employment to improve is positive. The same principle applies to hours, demand, performance and input prices.

That distinction matters for households and workers. The survey can show how employers are describing conditions and expectations, but it cannot establish what will happen to a particular company’s prices, staffing or schedules.

Why BTOS is different

Census collects BTOS data every two weeks. The sample includes approximately 1.2 million businesses divided into six panels of about 200,000 cases each. Businesses in each panel are asked to report once every 12 weeks over the course of a year.

The survey is representative of U.S. employer businesses, including single-location and multi-location businesses, but excludes farms. BTOS results are available nationally, by sector and state, and for the 25 most populous metropolitan statistical areas, with additional employment-size and subsector detail.

That frequency gives officials, researchers and businesses a quicker view of changing conditions than many traditional economic reports. It may help identify emerging shifts after disruptions such as natural disasters or during periods of economic stress.

BTOS complements rather than replaces monthly reports on employment, inflation, retail sales and other economic measures. Census identifies it as an experimental data product, so the survey should be read alongside established indicators that use different methods, definitions and release schedules.

What the results may mean for readers

For businesses, the combination of elevated input-price readings and positive activity expectations suggests that managing costs remains a concern even as many firms continue to anticipate stable or improving activity.

For workers and job seekers, the future-employees and future-hours readings may offer an early directional signal about staffing decisions. They do not establish that employers will hire, add shifts or increase hours. Broader labor-market measures provide separate context: the Associated Press reported that weekly unemployment claims were 206,000 in the latest report it covered and that layoffs remained relatively rare.

Suppliers may watch the demand and performance readings for signs of whether customers expect orders and activity to hold up. Consumers should remember that BTOS measures business reports, not household prices, household income or household financial conditions.

What to watch next

Future BTOS releases will show whether the current pattern continues: elevated input-cost readings alongside cautiously positive expectations for performance, demand and staffing. The relationship between those measures may matter more than any single reading.

If cost expectations remain high while demand and staffing expectations weaken, businesses could face greater pressure on margins and operations. If cost pressure eases while demand and staffing readings hold up, the outlook would look more favorable. Those are possible interpretations to watch, not conclusions established by the September 6 data.

For now, the latest Census snapshot points to businesses that see room for continued activity but remain concerned about operating costs. It is an early survey signal, not a final verdict on inflation, growth or the labor market.

Sources

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