Idaho revenue beats first-quarter forecast by $90.3 million

Idaho General Fund revenue was $90.3 million, or 6.8%, above forecast in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the governor’s office reported Oct. 9. The Idaho Capital Sun independently reported the same total. But results varied across tax sources: individual income-tax revenue was above forecast, while corporate income tax was below it.

September accounted for $39 million of the first-quarter margin, or about 7% above that month’s forecast, the Capital Sun reported. That monthly result contributed to the quarterly total; it does not mean every month or tax category exceeded projections.

Tax sources moved in different directions

The governor’s summary put individual income-tax revenue 18.3% above forecast year to date. Corporate income tax was $10.2 million, or 7.9%, below forecast. The governor’s office described sales tax as slightly below forecast year to date; the Capital Sun characterized it as nearly in line with projections. Both accounts describe sales-tax performance as close to the forecast, rather than a large shortfall.

Withholding grew 20% year over year in the first quarter of FY2027, according to the governor’s summary. That compares with growth of 2.8% in FY2026 and 5.9% in FY2025. Gov. Brad Little attributed the latest increase to workforce and economic strength. The growth figures are reported results; the explanation for them is the governor’s assessment.

The governor’s summary reported $215.1 million in sales-tax collections in September and $617.4 million year to date. It also reported 23.4% year-over-year growth in the first quarter in online marketplace activity. The governor’s release describes that increase as growth in “online marketplace sales”; the underlying Division of Financial Management report describes it as growth in online marketplace transactions. The transaction-growth measure is distinct from the sales-tax collection amounts.

Revenue informs budget planning, not spending decisions

Little called the revenue growth encouraging but said spending commitments should be limited to what Idaho can responsibly sustain. The collections provide information for budget planning, but the revenue result itself does not change tax rates, appropriations or spending. Nor does the above-forecast margin establish a budget surplus or demonstrate that higher spending can be sustained.

The result follows broad cuts to state agencies, programs and departments approved the prior year, the Capital Sun reported. The publication also reported that Little is to present budget recommendations to the Legislature in January. The first-quarter figures establish no specific budget action arising from the collections.

Idaho General Fund revenue for the first three months of fiscal 2027 was $90.3 million above forecast, even as tax-category results differed. The totals show where collections stood against projections; they do not determine what the state will propose or approve in its next budget.