Haiti food insecurity forecast reaches 6.35 million by June 2027

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) projects that 6.35 million people in Haiti will face acute food insecurity at Crisis level or worse from March through June 2027. That is 57% of the population it analyzed; nearly 2 million people are projected to be in Emergency, or IPC Phase 4. The World Food Programme (WFP) says the projection is more than 500,000 higher than for the same four-month period in 2026.

The IPC analysis, released October 28, estimates conditions from September 2026 through February 2027 and projects conditions for March through June 2027. Its validity period runs from September 1, 2026, through June 30, 2027.

Phase 3 or worse means Crisis conditions or more severe food insecurity; Phase 4 is Emergency. The percentages are shares of the population analyzed by the IPC, not necessarily of everyone in Haiti. These are estimates and projections for specified periods, not a count of people on the analysis’s release date, and the later figures may change.

The two Phase 3-or-worse totals in the table differ by about 410,000, but they cover periods of different lengths: six months and four months. That subtraction does not show how many people newly entered crisis conditions. For a like-for-like comparison, WFP’s estimate that the March–June 2027 projection is more than 500,000 above the same period in 2026 is the relevant measure.

Insecurity and economic pressures shape the projection i

The IPC identifies escalating insecurity as the main driver of the expected conditions. It also cites displacement, economic decline, high food prices, weak purchasing power and climate shocks related to El Niño. The analysis says these pressures affect people’s access to food and their ability to maintain livelihoods.

For areas facing Phase 4 conditions, the IPC recommends urgently expanding assistance to meet immediate needs and protect livelihoods. Its recommendations include cash and food aid, agricultural inputs, credit, equipment and extension services. It also calls for support to rural agriculture and fisheries value chains, expanded social protection, and stronger links between emergency and development programs. These are recommendations, not an authorization of aid.

WFP reports assistance and a funding requirement i

Separately, WFP says it has worked with the Haitian government to support 2.6 million people so far in 2026. The agency says it needs $78 million to sustain its operations through March 2027. That figure is a stated funding requirement, not confirmation that the money has been secured.