USDA says grocery costs will keep rising, with beef still a pressure point

USDA’s June 2026 Food Price Outlook says household grocery bills are still headed higher this year, even if inflation is cooler than the peak surge of 2022 and 2023. The agency now expects food-at-home prices to rise 2.8% in 2026, while food-away-from-home prices are forecast to rise 3.6%.

Beef remains the standout pressure point. USDA says beef and veal prices were 12.9% higher in May 2026 than a year earlier, and the agency says the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its lowest level in 75 years while consumer demand has stayed strong. USDA’s June forecast puts beef and veal prices up 7.5% for 2026.

What is still running hot

USDA says other food-at-home categories expected to rise faster than their long-run average include fish and seafood, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, processed fruits and vegetables, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages. Eggs, dairy products, and fats and oils are forecast to decline in 2026 compared with 2025.

That means the pressure is uneven, not universal. A grocery cart built around beef, produce, drinks, and sweets is likely to feel costlier than one built around categories that are cooling or moving more slowly.

The broader inflation picture

The latest BLS Consumer Price Index report shows overall consumer prices were up 4.2% from May 2025 to May 2026. Food prices rose 3.1% over that span, with food at home up 2.7% and food away from home up 3.5%.

For households, that is the practical takeaway: grocery inflation is no longer surging at pandemic-era levels, but it is still rising enough to keep budgets tight, especially for families that buy a lot of beef or fresh produce.

Sources

• USDA ERS Food Price Outlook — Summary Findings
• BLS TED: Consumer Prices Up 4.2 Percent Over the Year Ended May 2026
• PBS News / Associated Press: Grocery prices context report