A Spent Falcon 9 Rocket Stage Is Expected to Strike the Moon on August 5

NASA says a spent Falcon 9 upper stage is expected to strike the Moon on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, giving researchers a rare opportunity to observe a human-made lunar impact while posing no danger to Earth.

The impact is expected at approximately 06:35 UTC near the Einstein and Bell craters. A research paper places the event near Einstein Crater on sunlit terrain close to the Moon’s eastern limb as viewed from Earth.

How the rocket stage reached the Moon

The object is the upper stage from a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch on January 15, 2025. That mission delivered Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost 1 lunar lander under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative.

NASA says solar activity and gravitational forces caused the stage’s unplanned return toward the Moon. NASA and SpaceX continue to track its flight path. NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies has assessed the probability of a lunar impact at 100%, but that assessment does not establish the exact impact time, brightness, crater size or the success of later observations with complete precision.

NASA plans observations from Earth and lunar orbit

The impact will not be visible to the naked eye from Earth. NASA’s Meteoroid Environments Office plans to use ground-based telescopes to search for an impact flash, although weather and lunar lighting could make observations difficult.

NASA also plans to use the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter, whose ShadowCam instrument may be able to examine the predicted site before or after the collision. Whether those spacecraft can capture useful data will depend on their orbital timing, position and the lighting conditions at the site. Images may take several days to become available.

What scientists hope to learn

The collision could help researchers study several parts of lunar impact physics at once: the brief flash produced at impact, the dust and rock thrown outward as an ejecta plume, the formation of a new crater and the way an artificial impact can be located on the lunar surface.

A research team led by Benjamin Fernando describes the event as an opportunity to test observation methods for future lunar-impact studies, investigate dust and plume behavior, and develop techniques that could help localize impacts for future seismic experiments. The researchers also note that properties such as the event’s visible brightness remain uncertain.

NASA estimates that the stage could create a crater about 60 feet wide and 12 feet deep. That is an estimate, not a confirmed measurement, and the final crater and ejecta pattern will depend on the stage’s mass, speed, impact angle and local terrain.

Why an artificial lunar impact matters

Natural meteoroids strike the Moon regularly because it has no atmosphere to slow them. Human-made impacts are much less common, which makes a collision with a known object scientifically useful: researchers can compare the predicted event with later images and measurements instead of inferring the cause after the fact.

The event also highlights a practical issue for expanding lunar activity. Spacecraft and rocket stages need end-of-life plans beyond Earth orbit, including ways to track them and, where appropriate, dispose of them in predictable locations. NASA says lunar-surface disposal can be technically accepted and safe in some mission designs, but this particular return was not a deliberate SpaceX disposal maneuver.

The next meaningful update will be whether telescopes or lunar orbiters detected the impact and what later imagery reveals about the crater, plume and surrounding surface. Until an official post-impact update or direct observational report is available, the collision should be described as expected rather than confirmed.

Sources

• NASA: NASA Will Attempt to Observe Rocket Part’s Lunar Impact
• Fernando et al.: Observational planning for the 2026 August 5 Falcon 9 Upper Stage lunar impact
• Associated Press: A piece of SpaceX rocket will slam into the moon