A strengthening El Niño could bring a hotter, more disruptive end to 2026
A strengthening El Niño is raising the odds of disruptive weather patterns across several parts of the world during the final months of 2026 and the start of 2027.
In its August 13, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, NOAA said there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. NOAA also gave a 69% chance that the October-December 2026 season will reach a historic threshold of at least plus 2.5 degrees Celsius in the three-month RONI measure, exceeding previous El Niño events in the record dating to 1950.
Those are probabilities, not guarantees. A strong El Niño raises the chances of certain seasonal patterns, but it does not determine the weather in every country, city or season.
What is changing in the Pacific
El Niño develops when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm and alter the atmosphere above them. That shift can redistribute heat and change the position and strength of rainfall, winds and storm systems across distant regions.
NOAA reported that sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeded 2 degrees Celsius in July. The agency’s outlook indicates that the event will continue strengthening through the end of 2026. A separate August forecast from NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory found that all 30 model ensemble members continued to intensify toward a peak sometime between October and January.
The practical effect is not a single worldwide forecast. Depending on location and season, El Niño can raise the odds of unusual heat, heavy rain or drought, while also changing conditions for fisheries and other marine ecosystems. Other climate drivers — including the Indian Ocean Dipole — and local vulnerabilities can strengthen, weaken or redirect those effects.
The Greater Horn of Africa faces a high-stakes rainy season
The Greater Horn of Africa offers a clear example of why regional planning matters. The World Meteorological Organization said an outlook issued with the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre points to warmer and wetter-than-usual conditions in October-December, a critical rainfall period for much of the region.
ICPAC forecasts a 90% chance of enhanced rainfall in southern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia and northeastern Kenya. WMO says the season can provide up to 70% of annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. Additional rain could improve pasture and water availability for livestock.
But excessive rainfall could also bring flash flooding, crop destruction, infrastructure damage and higher risks from water- and vector-borne diseases. Flooding can disrupt access to health care, nutrition services, roads and markets even when the broader seasonal outlook improves water supplies.
WMO also identifies 1997 and 2023 as relevant analogue years for preparedness, while emphasizing that each El Niño is different and that the 2026 forecast remains the primary reference. The outlook is regional and seasonal, not a city-level prediction or a guarantee that flooding will occur.
Why governments and households are watching
Seasonal El Niño forecasts are used by farmers, utilities, water managers, disaster agencies and humanitarian organizations. Planning can include adjusting planting decisions, checking reservoirs and drainage systems, preparing health services, reviewing food and fuel supply risks, and positioning emergency supplies before hazards emerge.
Utilities may need to account for changes in electricity demand caused by heat, as well as possible effects on hydropower and water availability. Fisheries and coastal economies can face disruption when warmer Pacific waters alter marine conditions.
For consumers, the consequences are indirect and uneven. Weather-related losses can affect crops, transportation, food markets and insurance costs, but the forecast alone cannot establish a specific price increase or disaster in any one place.
What climate change may be adding
A new study published August 27 in the journal Science adds to the debate over whether human-caused warming is changing the intensity of El Niño. Using coral records from the Galápagos that extend roughly 1,000 years, researchers estimated that recent El Niño-related variability was more than 36% higher than during the preindustrial period, with a 16% increase compared with the 20th century.
The study found that the recent increase tracks the rise in global temperatures attributed to human activity. Associated Press and Nature reported that the research combines coral-based climate reconstruction with model analysis. They also noted that outside scientists disagreed over how fully the coral record separates changes in El Niño itself from the broader warming signal.
The result should be treated as new evidence, not proof that every future El Niño will be stronger or that every regional impact can be predicted in advance. El Niño is a natural climate pattern, while climate change is raising the baseline temperature on which it operates. The combination may increase the stakes for preparedness, but attribution of any individual flood, drought or heat wave requires separate event-specific analysis.
What happens next
NOAA’s next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for September 10, 2026. WMO says its next El Niño Update is scheduled for September 3. In the meantime, governments, humanitarian agencies, farmers, utilities and households should use seasonal forecasts as planning information rather than as precise local weather predictions.
Key sources
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, Aug. 13, 2026
- World Meteorological Organization — El Niño impacts Greater Horn of Africa
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory — August 2026 El Niño Predictions
- Associated Press — Coral-record study and stronger El Niño events
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