A stronger El Niño threatens Galápagos wildlife and forests

NOAA said on September 10, 2026, that El Niño is strengthening, raising the risk that the Galápagos Islands will face pressure from both unusually warm Pacific waters and heavier rain during the 2026-27 season.

The Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory and reported sea-surface-temperature anomalies exceeding 3.0 degrees Celsius in the eastern equatorial Pacific. NOAA put the chance of a very strong El Niño during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27 at greater than 90%.

That is a probability, not a guarantee of a particular outcome on any island. NOAA’s separate September strength table gives a 98% chance that the October-December 2026 relative oceanic Niño index, or RONI, will reach at least 2.0 degrees Celsius. The September 10 discussion separately gives a 75% chance of a historic event at or above 2.5 degrees Celsius, a threshold NOAA uses for an event stronger than those recorded since 1950. NOAA cautions that event strength does not necessarily equal the strength of local impacts.

Why the Galápagos is vulnerable

The Galápagos lie about 1,000 kilometers from Ecuador’s coast. UNESCO describes 19 principal volcanic islands and the surrounding marine reserve as a unique evolutionary laboratory located where three ocean currents meet.

That setting links the islands’ land and sea ecosystems. UNESCO notes that much of the wildlife depends directly on the ocean, including seabirds, marine iguanas and sea lions. A change in marine conditions can therefore affect both animals in the water and species that feed or breed on land.

How warmer water could disrupt the food web

Warmer water can reduce the plankton, algae and smaller fish that form the base of the marine food web. If those prey species become less available, larger animals may have difficulty feeding, especially during breeding periods.

Scientists in Ecuador told The Associated Press that Galápagos penguins, blue-footed boobies, petrels, flightless cormorants, albatrosses and sea lions could be among the species most exposed. Coral colonies and tuna fishing could also be affected because both depend on productive marine conditions.

The concern is not that the projected losses have already been measured. It is that sustained food shortages could cause animal colonies to stop reproducing, disperse in search of food or die from starvation. Gustavo Jiménez of the Charles Darwin Foundation told AP that the archipelago’s vertebrate population could fall by at least 20% this year if the event develops with the expected magnitude. That figure is an expert projection, not an observed result.

The Galápagos penguin is one of the species scientists will watch closely. AP reported that Charles Darwin Foundation data showed only about 400 of an estimated 1,300 Galápagos penguins remained after the powerful 1998 El Niño. That historical comparison illustrates the species’ vulnerability, but it does not establish what will happen during the current event.

Heavy rain could create a separate land-based threat

El Niño’s effects would not be limited to the sea. Heavier rain could help invasive plants spread more quickly into habitats occupied by endemic species. Scientists cited by AP warned that plants such as blackberries could overtake native vegetation because they can reproduce more quickly under favorable conditions.

Heinke Jager of the Charles Darwin Foundation told AP that the last three remaining Scalesia forests could be at risk of disappearing if El Niño arrives with the expected force. Opuntia cacti along the shoreline could also be threatened. These are projections about a possible future impact, not evidence that the forests or cacti have already disappeared.

Conservation work is planned or ongoing, including invasive-plant removal, seed collection and nursery efforts to protect native vegetation. Those measures are a response to the risk, not a completed rescue or an official emergency declaration.

What the forecast does—and does not—tell us

AP reported a local projection of about 2.2 degrees Celsius above normal near the Galápagos. That figure is different from NOAA’s broad eastern-Pacific observations and from the RONI probabilities used in its strength table.

NOAA’s forecast increases the likelihood of significant El Niño-related impacts, but it cannot determine exactly how severe conditions will be on each island. Local sea temperatures, rainfall, currents, wildlife counts, coral conditions and fishery reports will show how the forecast is translating into actual ecological pressure.

Scientists are also still studying how climate change affects the frequency or intensity of strong El Niño events. Deutsche Welle reported that the relationship remains an active research question. The current forecast does not establish that climate change caused this specific El Niño or guarantee that it will be stronger because of climate change.

The next developments to watch are updated ENSO observations, local rainfall and sea-temperature monitoring, wildlife counts, fishery conditions and the progress of conservation measures. In the Galápagos, the key issue is whether a warmer sea will interrupt the food chain before ecosystems and island communities have time to adapt.

Sources

Look for updates to this story

Discover more from Interactive News

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.