August 2026 Tied the Global Temperature Record as El Niño Intensifies

August 2026 tied the highest monthly global temperature in the ERA5 record just as the World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño is strengthening toward potentially very strong levels. Together, the observation and forecast give governments, businesses and households more reason to prepare for elevated risks of disruptive heat, drought, flooding and wildfire in some regions through early 2027. The effects will not be the same everywhere.

What changed in August

The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported on September 10, 2026, that August had a global average surface air temperature of 16.96°C. That was 0.85°C above the 1991–2020 average, making it the warmest August in the ERA5 dataset.

Copernicus said August also tied July 2023 as the warmest month recorded across all calendar months. The difference between the two months was less than 0.01°C. August was 1.65°C above Copernicus’s estimated 1850–1900 pre-industrial average and was the first month above 1.5°C in that comparison since November 2025.

Why the 1.5°C figure needs context

A single month above 1.5°C is not the same as breaching the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. That goal concerns a sustained global average over a much longer period, not an individual monthly reading in one climate dataset.

The August result is still a significant climate signal. It shows how long-term human-caused warming is raising the baseline on which natural climate variations operate. Copernicus also reported that the average global temperature for the 12 months from September 2025 through August 2026 was 1.48°C above its estimated 1850–1900 baseline.

The ocean signal

Copernicus reported that the average surface temperature across extra-polar oceans, defined in its analysis as 60°S to 60°N, was the highest recorded for August in ERA5. The monthly average was also tied for the highest across all calendar months, while tropical Pacific waters remained exceptionally warm.

Those ocean conditions are important because the tropical Pacific is central to the development of El Niño. Ocean heat can influence atmospheric circulation, rainfall patterns and temperatures over land, but the consequences depend on location, season and other climate drivers.

Europe provided a documented regional example of the warmer conditions. Copernicus said Western Europe experienced its warmest summer on record, surpassing the previous record from 2003. It also reported widespread dryness, severe drought in parts of France, the United Kingdom, Hungary, Romania and Serbia, wildfire activity, and exceptionally low flows in rivers including the Rhine and Danube. Europe as a whole had its third-warmest summer on record, so the Western Europe result should not be treated as a uniform continent-wide outcome.

What WMO is forecasting

In an update published September 3, 2026, the WMO said El Niño was firmly established and expected to strengthen further. WMO forecasts showed a near-100% likelihood that the event would persist through September–November 2026 and December 2026–February 2027. The event could reach very strong intensity before peaking toward the end of 2026.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, not a result of climate change. Its effects are occurring on top of long-term human-caused warming. WMO cautioned that the strength of an El Niño event does not directly determine the severity of impacts in any individual country or region. Other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans, can modify the outcome.

Why the forecast matters

The combination of a warmer baseline and a strengthening El Niño increases the need for planning across climate-sensitive systems. Depending on location and season, the pattern can shift the odds of extreme heat, water shortages, heavy rainfall, flooding, wildfire conditions and crop disruption. It does not guarantee any specific disaster.

Agriculture, water managers, public-health agencies, energy planners and disaster-response organizations have a forecast window extending into early 2027. Heat can increase electricity demand and health risks. Drought can reduce water availability and agricultural output. Flooding can damage infrastructure and disrupt transport. Wildfire smoke can affect air quality far from the flames.

Those pressures can reach food prices, insurance, utility bills, supply chains and essential services. The practical response is regional: readers should rely on their national meteorological and hydrological services for official warnings, while governments and operators use the broader outlook to prepare for a wider range of conditions.

Sources

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