China’s Scarborough Shoal drills test ASEAN diplomacy

China’s August 1 military exercises and new nature-reserve rules around Scarborough Shoal have added military, administrative and environmental pressure to its dispute with the Philippines. The combination is also testing whether ASEAN’s diplomatic language can reduce the risk of dangerous encounters without resolving the underlying sovereignty claims.

China’s joint naval and air drills near the disputed feature were described by Chinese state broadcaster CCTV as a test of air-sea coordination and the ability to provide rapid reinforcement. China also released rules for a nature reserve it established around the shoal, including bans on unauthorized fishing, mining and coral harvesting, according to the Associated Press.

Neither action changed the shoal’s legal status or settled the competing sovereignty claims. But together they show how military signaling and administrative enforcement can reinforce each other in contested waters.

Why Scarborough Shoal matters

Scarborough Shoal is known in China as Huangyan Island and in the Philippines as Panatag Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc. It is a fishing area and a longstanding flash point between Beijing and Manila. China claims sovereignty over the feature and broader maritime rights in the South China Sea. The Philippines says its maritime rights must be assessed under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS, and has rejected China’s expansive historic-rights framework.

The competing names reflect a deeper disagreement over the difference between territorial sovereignty and maritime rights. A claim to an offshore feature is not the same as a determination of the sea zones that feature can generate under UNCLOS.

July confrontations raised the immediate risk

The August exercise followed confrontations in July involving Philippine and Chinese government vessels. The Philippine Coast Guard accused Chinese vessels of using water cannons and making dangerous close approaches near Scarborough Shoal. Al Jazeera, citing the Philippine Coast Guard and reporting from DPA and Reuters, said Manila reported that a Chinese vessel came within about seven meters of a Philippine fisheries boat and that water cannon fire hit two Philippine ships.

China disputed that account. The China Coast Guard said it had imposed control measures on Philippine vessels it considered to be operating illegally, while China’s Foreign Ministry described the actions as reasonable and lawful. Those competing claims matter: allegations of dangerous maneuvers, injuries or coercive conduct should remain attributed unless independently established.

The practical danger is that coast-guard encounters can produce collisions, injuries or escalation without a shot being fired. Fishing boats, patrol craft and military forces may operate in close proximity, leaving little room for error or miscalculation.

What the Philippine seabed submission does — and does not — do

The Philippines submitted information to the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf in June 2024 concerning the outer limits of its continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles in the West Palawan Region. The submission is a legal and technical step concerning seabed rights, not a ruling on ownership of Scarborough Shoal.

The U.N. procedural record says the Commission’s work does not express an opinion on the legal status of a country or area and does not delimit maritime boundaries. Any recommendations would not prejudice boundary delimitation between states or resolve sovereignty disputes.

Manila’s broader position relies on UNCLOS and the 2016 South China Sea arbitration. That arbitration addressed maritime entitlements and related legal questions, including the status of certain features and the lawfulness of maritime claims. It did not transfer sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal. China rejects the award and says Philippine efforts to establish maritime baselines around Huangyan Island are illegal and invalid.

The dispute therefore involves several separate questions: who has sovereignty over the feature, what maritime zones it can legally generate, which seabed rights may be claimed from the Philippine mainland, and which state may regulate fishing or environmental activity in nearby waters.

ASEAN’s diplomatic test

In its January 2026 foreign ministers’ retreat statement, ASEAN expressed concern about serious incidents, risks to personal safety and damage to the marine environment in the South China Sea. The statement called for self-restraint, peaceful dispute resolution under UNCLOS, confidence-building measures and practical steps to reduce accidents, misunderstandings and miscalculation.

The ministers also said ASEAN would endeavor to conclude an effective and substantive code of conduct with China within 2026. That is a diplomatic objective, not a completed agreement, and the statement does not create a binding enforcement mechanism.

ASEAN’s realistic contribution is therefore more likely to be the management of encounters than the resolution of sovereignty claims. Better communication channels, clearer incident-prevention rules, greater transparency around patrols and stronger environmental cooperation could reduce the chance that a confrontation becomes a crisis.

What changes for the region

For fishermen, the immediate issue is access to traditional fishing grounds and the risk of being caught between competing enforcement claims. For maritime businesses and travelers, the main near-term concern is heightened regional risk and possible disruption to fisheries, patrols and local maritime operations—not an announced closure of the South China Sea to commercial navigation.

The August actions have not produced a new treaty or legal ruling. Their importance lies in the combination of military pressure, reserve regulations and repeated close encounters. ASEAN’s credibility will be tested by whether its diplomatic language can produce practical restraints before another incident causes a collision, injury or wider escalation.

Sources

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