FAO and WFP Warn Hunger Could Worsen Across 13 Hotspots Through November 2026

The Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme warned in a new early-warning report that acute food insecurity is expected to worsen across 13 countries between June and November 2026, with Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine identified as the most critical hotspots by severity and magnitude.

Nigeria has moved into the report’s highest-concern group. About 34.8 million people there are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity, classified as Phase 3 or worse, during June through August 2026. The projection includes 1.8 million people expected to be in Emergency, or Phase 4, conditions.

In Borno State, about 15,000 people are projected to face Catastrophe, or Phase 5, conditions. The figures place Nigeria among the locations where conflict, displacement, climate pressure and restricted access to food could drive the sharpest deterioration.

Where the warning is most severe

The report identifies Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine as the most critical hotspots based on the expected severity and scale of food insecurity. Nigeria’s move into the highest-concern group adds one of the world’s largest populations to the warning’s most urgent tier.

The assessment also projects that about 6 million people in Somalia will face Phase 3 or worse acute food insecurity during April through June 2026. Nearly 1.9 million people in Somalia are projected to reach Emergency, or Phase 4, levels during that period.

The time windows differ between countries. The overall warning covers June through November 2026, while the projections for Somalia use an April-to-June period and those for Nigeria cover June through August. Those differences matter when comparing the numbers: they describe separate country forecasts rather than a single count covering the same dates.

An early warning, not a final count

FAO and WFP describe the assessment as an early-warning projection. It is not a final count of people who experienced hunger, and the figures should not be treated as a new declaration of famine.

Conditions can change as conflict develops, people are displaced, rainfall and harvests vary, food prices move, humanitarian access changes or funding becomes available. The forecast is intended to identify where those pressures could produce the most serious deterioration before the projected conditions arrive.

The report links the risks to a combination of conflict, displacement, climate pressure and barriers to access. In practical terms, the warning gives governments and aid agencies a basis for directing funding, food assistance and other early action toward the places facing the greatest danger.

For Nigeria, the projected scale is especially significant: 34.8 million people are included in the Phase 3-or-worse forecast, while the smaller but more severe groups in Phase 4 and Phase 5 face substantially more acute conditions. The Borno projection of about 15,000 people in Catastrophe conditions highlights the risk that national totals can conceal concentrated emergencies within particular states.

The same distinction applies to Somalia. A projection of about 6 million people at Phase 3 or worse includes nearly 1.9 million at Phase 4, showing how the overall estimate contains populations facing different degrees of need.

FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System continues to monitor food prices, production and food-security risks by country and region. The next practical test will be whether governments, donors and humanitarian organizations act on the warning as conflict, weather, markets and access conditions evolve through the forecast periods.