Guinea-Bissau Referendum Could Reshape Presidential Power
Guinea-Bissau’s military-led transitional authorities are preparing for a constitutional referendum on Sunday, August 30, a vote that could reshape executive power before planned presidential and legislative elections on December 6.
Voters will decide whether a new constitution approved by the National Transitional Council should enter into force. The document has been published in the official gazette, but it is not yet in effect. Its proposed changes would give the presidency a larger role in appointing and directing the government while reducing the size of the legislature.
What voters are being asked to approve
According to Reuters’ review of a copy of the proposed constitution, the president would be able to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, create or abolish ministries, chair the Council of Ministers and dissolve parliament in the event of a grave political crisis. The president would also be able to dismiss the government under certain circumstances.
The proposal would change the legislature as well. The National Assembly would be reduced from 102 seats to 65, while the number of electoral constituencies would fall from 29 to 12.
Those changes could affect how smaller parties and locally rooted political movements compete for representation. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies has also noted that the proposed constitution would raise some barriers to contesting elections, including a financial deposit for presidential candidates and membership requirements for parties sponsoring candidates.
Why the referendum is taking place now
The referendum follows Guinea-Bissau’s military takeover on November 26, 2025, one day before the electoral commission was expected to announce results from a presidential election. The African Union condemned the coup and said the National Electoral Commission was the institution legally empowered to announce official results.
The military-backed transition has presented the referendum and the December election timetable as steps toward restoring civilian government. The planned December 6 elections are not proof that the polls will occur or that they will be free and competitive.
Why opposition groups are calling for a boycott
PAIGC, one of Guinea-Bissau’s main political parties, called for a boycott in a decision dated August 18 and reported by Deutsche Welle on August 19. The party described the referendum as illegitimate and urged its supporters not to participate.
PAIGC has attributed that position to what it calls restrictions on political activity, including the suspension of political activities, the closure of party offices and a lack of guarantees for free participation. Those are the party’s claims, not independently established facts in the available reporting.
Deutsche Welle reported on August 27 that opposition to the vote extends beyond PAIGC. The Partido da Renovação Social, or PRS, associated in the report with Fernando Dias da Costa, and the Convergência Nacional para a Liberdade e o Desenvolvimento da Guiné-Bissau, or COLIDE-GB, have also opposed the referendum. Civil-society organizations have questioned the legal basis and conditions for holding it.
An EU SEE monitoring alert separately documented reported attacks and intimidation directed at human-rights defenders who have criticized the process. The alert records the monitoring consortium’s account and does not, by itself, establish who was responsible for every reported incident.
What the transition authorities say
Supporters of the proposed constitution have urged citizens to vote. Deutsche Welle reported that transition President Gen. Horta Inta-A Na Man described Sunday’s referendum as a decisive moment for Guinea-Bissau’s future and called for mass, orderly participation.
That argument frames the referendum as part of a transition plan leading toward elections. Critics view the same process as an attempt to give constitutional form to decisions made under military-backed rule. The available sources do not establish that the referendum will produce either a democratic restoration or a permanent executive consolidation; those outcomes will depend on the conduct of the vote, the treatment of opposition groups and what follows it.
What is at stake
The referendum is about more than whether a constitutional document is approved. It could determine the balance among the presidency, parliament and prime minister in Guinea-Bissau’s next political system.
A “yes” vote could establish a stronger presidency with greater control over appointments, ministries and parliament. The proposed reduction in legislative seats and constituencies could also change how parties organize and compete for representation.
A boycott would make participation and legitimacy central issues even if the constitution receives formal approval. The key democratic questions would then include whether voters had meaningful access to competing views, whether opposition parties could organize freely and whether the resulting constitutional framework provides effective checks on executive power.
What happens next
The immediate checkpoint is the referendum on August 30. If the proposal is approved and implemented, it would shape the rules for the planned presidential and legislative elections on December 6. Those elections remain scheduled rather than guaranteed.
For Guinea-Bissau, the central issue is whether the referendum becomes a credible institutional reset after the November 2025 coup or gives a military-backed transition a constitutional vehicle for concentrating authority in the presidency.
Sources
- Reuters — Guinea-Bissau referendum and proposed presidential powers
- Deutsche Welle Africa — Calls to vote and boycott
- African Union Commission — Coup statement
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies — Referendum explainer
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