Houthi blockade threat adds a second risk to global shipping

A Houthi declaration targeting Saudi shipping has introduced a second major risk to global trade routes after traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply during the week of July 20, 2026.

The threatened route runs through the Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, a corridor commonly used by cargo moving between Asia, Europe and the Middle East. The declaration does not mean the waterway has been formally closed, and shipping has not stopped. But it has increased the operational uncertainty facing carriers, crews, insurers and cargo owners.

Transits turned around after the declaration

Associated Press reported on July 30 that maritime-security firm Ambrey recorded more than 10 transits that U-turned in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden after the Houthi naval blockade against Saudi Arabia was announced. AP, citing the latest Ambrey data, also reported that Bab el-Mandeb transits were down 30% after July 21 compared with June.

Those figures are reported data points from a specialist firm, not a complete count of every vessel using the waterway. They nevertheless show how a threat can affect trade before a formal closure: operators may delay departures, change routes or wait for clearer security guidance.

Houthi statements about the blockade and related attacks or threats should be treated as claims by an interested party unless independently confirmed. The immediate supply-chain consequence is the uncertainty itself.

Hormuz traffic has also fallen

The pressure is occurring alongside a separate decline at the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. AP reported that Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted 82 ships moving through Hormuz from July 13 through July 19, compared with 39 from July 20 through July 26.

The two waterways matter together because the Red Sea route is one of the principal alternatives to Hormuz for some cargo moving between Asia, Europe and the Middle East. If both corridors become harder to use, carriers have fewer straightforward options for moving energy, manufactured goods, food and industrial inputs.

Rerouting decisions will vary by carrier, cargo and security assessment. Some operators may divert around the Cape of Good Hope, while others may delay voyages or continue using the affected routes with additional precautions. The result can be longer sailing times, higher fuel use, increased insurance costs and more expensive freight even when ports and canals remain technically open.

Seafarer safety is part of the supply-chain risk

The International Maritime Organization says more than 20,000 seafarers are affected by the regional security situation. The IMO prepared a voluntary evacuation plan to evacuate around 6,000 seafarers from the region. By June 26, the IMO reported that 136 vessels and approximately 2,900 seafarers had been evacuated. The plan is currently paused.

That safety picture matters for trade because shipping capacity depends not only on vessels and ports but also on crews willing and able to operate them. Changes in evacuation plans, insurance terms or maritime advisories can influence route decisions quickly.

Energy, fertilizer and food costs are exposed

UN Trade and Development warned in a June 30 assessment that disruption around Hormuz can continue to affect transport, energy, fertilizer, food prices and inflation, with vulnerable economies facing the heaviest burden. That publication provides context for the current Red Sea threat; it is not a forecast that the new Houthi declaration will produce the same scale of impact.

For now, the key issue is whether the threatened Red Sea route remains usable at commercially acceptable levels while Hormuz traffic is already depressed. The next important signals will be verified transit data, carrier decisions and official maritime-safety measures. Even without a recognized closure, uncertainty at two linked chokepoints can raise the cost and time required to move goods around the world.

Sources

• Associated Press: Houthi blockade and Red Sea transits
• International Maritime Organization: Middle East shipping and seafarers
• UN Trade and Development: lasting effects of Hormuz disruption