OPEC cuts 2026 oil-demand growth forecast to 180,000 bpd

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil-demand growth in 2026 to 180,000 barrels per day, down from 380,000 in its September outlook. It was the sixth consecutive monthly reduction. At the same time, the organization raised its 2027 growth forecast and reported higher September crude production estimates for participating countries.

In its October report, published October 13, OPEC forecast that global oil demand would average about 108.3 million barrels per day in 2027. The updated figures show a sharply lower growth outlook for 2026 alongside a higher one for the following year.

Growth forecasts and total demand tell different stories

The 2026 growth forecast was cut by 200,000 barrels per day from September’s estimate. That change is not the same as a 200,000-barrel-per-day decline in OPEC’s estimate of total 2026 demand: the total-demand figure fell by 120,000 barrels per day between the reports.

Part of the change in the year-over-year growth rate reflects OPEC’s higher estimate for the previous year, which changes the baseline used to calculate 2026 growth. The growth forecast and total-demand estimate therefore describe related, but different, comparisons. The first is the projected increase from one year to the next; the second is the estimated average level of demand during the year.

For 2027, OPEC raised its growth forecast by 190,000 barrels per day from September. The organization said its higher outlook partly reflects an expectation that weaker demand in 2026 will be followed by additional demand to replenish oil inventories. That is OPEC’s explanation for its projection, not a report of future consumption already observed.

The figures are the organization’s forecasts, not a measure of what demand will ultimately be or a consensus forecast from other agencies. The October outlook revises OPEC’s published expectations; the forecast itself does not change production policy.

September production estimates moved higher

OPEC’s secondary-source estimates put September crude production by countries in the Declaration of Cooperation at about 39.07 million barrels per day, roughly 900,000 barrels per day above August. The aggregate estimate is based on secondary sources cited by OPEC, rather than direct reports from every country.

Saudi Arabia separately reported directly to OPEC that it produced 8.372 million barrels per day of crude in September, compared with 6.238 million in August. That was an increase of 2.134 million barrels per day. The Saudi figure is a country-reported production measure; it is not a figure for exports or shipments.

Russia’s production moved in the other direction. Reuters’ account of the OPEC report said Russian oil production fell by 38,000 barrels per day in September. The different national figures sit alongside the rise in the broader Declaration of Cooperation estimate, rather than showing a uniform change across producers.

OPEC’s monthly report covers global oil demand, supply and market balance. Its next monthly report is the next scheduled update to the organization’s forecasts and production estimates. Until then, the October figures remain projections for future demand and reported or estimated production for September, not confirmation of how much oil consumers will ultimately use or how much producing countries will ship.