Somalia’s Drought Pushes Rural Families Toward Baidoa Displacement Camps

Somali families are continuing to leave drought-affected farms and pastoral areas for displacement settlements around Baidoa after losing crops, livestock, water and the household assets needed to recover.

In reporting published August 12, the Associated Press documented families arriving in Baidoa from places including Saakoow in Middle Jubba and Awdiinle in Bay. Some had exhausted food supplies, lost animals and struggled to find water. Insecurity, conflict, high prices and other economic pressures are also contributing to the movement, so drought is not the sole cause of displacement.

The arrivals show how Somalia’s agricultural shock is becoming a broader rural-economy crisis. Families that once relied on crops, milk and livestock sales are reaching urban settlements with fewer ways to earn income and greater dependence on purchased or trucked water, food assistance and overstretched services.

From farms and grazing areas to Baidoa

Baidoa is absorbing people who have depleted the resources that would normally help them remain in place or return home. Failed harvests reduce both food stocks and cash income. Livestock losses remove savings, transport, milk and saleable assets at the same time.

That combination makes displacement more than a temporary search for food. When herds are dead or in poor condition and fields have produced little, families may lack seed, animals, water access and money to restart rural livelihoods. Displacement settlements become a destination for survival, even as residents face pressure on water, nutrition services, shelter and household income.

AP reported that Plan International estimated Baidoa was hosting about 1.6 million people, nearly half of them displaced, and that one in five families lacked reliable access to water. The figures are attributed to Plan International; they are not an independently verified census of the city or its settlements.

What failed in the rural economy

The Food and Agriculture Organization said Somalia’s 2025 Deyr cereal harvest was estimated at about 15,600 metric tons, the lowest output in its historical record and roughly 75 percent below the already low five-year average. The Deyr season accounts for about 40 percent of typical annual cereal production in central and southern Somalia.

FAO also reported depleted pasture and water, poor livestock body condition, deaths and sharply reduced milk production after the October-to-December 2025 Deyr rains failed. Cereal prices rose sharply in monitored markets, adding pressure to households that were already losing both food production and livestock income.

The evidence does not establish that Somalia’s entire 2026 agricultural year has failed. FAO’s March assessment distinguished the poor 2025 Deyr harvest from the later 2026 Gu season, for which planting and seasonal rainfall expectations were still being monitored.

Hunger has reached emergency levels

An Integrated Food Security Phase Classification update released May 14 projected that 6 million people, or 31 percent of the analyzed population, would face IPC Phase 3 or worse acute food insecurity during April through June 2026. It included 1.9 million people in IPC Phase 4, or Emergency.

The IPC said the deterioration was driven by poor Gu rainfall, sharp food-price increases linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict, currency depreciation and conflict-related displacement. It called for expanded assistance in rural areas and hotspot districts, including Burhakaba.

A June 17 warning from FAO and the World Food Programme placed Somalia among the global hunger hotspots of highest concern. The agencies said populations in Burhakaba District in the Bay region faced a risk of Famine. Their warning also cited conflict, economic shocks, severe funding shortfalls and forecast weather hazards as pressures on vulnerable households.

A possible shift from drought to flooding

The next major hazard could come from too much water rather than too little. AP reported that FAO projected a greater-than-90-percent probability of El Niño conditions developing from mid-2026 and intensifying during Somalia’s October-to-December rainy season.

That is a forecast risk, not a confirmed flood event. If heavy rains develop, flooding could damage homes and farmland, disrupt roads and contaminate drinking-water systems before rural communities have rebuilt. Somalia’s food-security monitoring also calls for anticipatory action in preparation for forecast floods linked to emerging El Niño conditions.

Response remains limited

On June 8, the African Development Bank Group, WFP and the U.N. Office for Project Services announced an $11.8 million, three-year initiative to strengthen agricultural and pastoral systems through land and water management, improved productivity, market access and disaster preparedness.

The ACALS program is intended to support 180,000 people, or 30,000 families, in Hirshabelle and Puntland. It is not a direct Baidoa relief operation, and its planned reach is limited compared with the millions facing acute food insecurity.

For families arriving from Bay and Middle Jubba, the immediate question is whether food, water and humanitarian services can cover current needs while there are still enough assets, pasture and water for some rural households to return. The answer will depend on aid access and funding, the performance of the 2026 agricultural seasons and whether the forecast flood risk materializes later this year.

Sources

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