Stronger El Niño Forecast Raises Crop and Food-Security Risks

NOAA said Thursday, August 13, that El Niño is strengthening toward a potentially very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. The update shifts the issue from climate monitoring to agricultural preparation, as governments and aid agencies assess risks to planting, harvests, livestock, water supplies and rural incomes.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put the chance of a very strong event during that period at greater than 90%. It also estimated a 69% chance that the October-December 2026 event will exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating to 1950, using the agency’s historic-strength threshold.

Those figures are forecasts, not guarantees of a specific drought, flood or crop failure. Local outcomes will depend on geography, season, crop calendars and other climate and economic pressures.

Why the forecast matters for farming

El Niño develops when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than average, altering atmospheric circulation and shifting rainfall and heat patterns around the world. For farmers, that can mean a shorter planting window, poor germination, heat stress during crop development, damaged pasture, livestock losses or reduced water availability.

The effects are not uniform. Forecast assessments point to increased risks of dryness and heat in parts of South and Southeast Asia, Central America and southern Africa. In East Africa, the risk can change by season: parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda face below-average rain and above-average temperatures during July-September, while heavier rain and flooding risks are expected in parts of the region during October-December.

That uneven pattern matters because both drought and excessive rain can damage food production. Dry conditions can reduce pasture and water supplies, while flooding can wash away seed, crops and topsoil, damage roads and storage facilities, and disrupt access to markets.

Model agreement is strengthening

The International Research Institute at Columbia University reported on July 20 that all 26 participating models maintained El Niño conditions through the forecast period. Twenty-three of the 26 models projected a very strong peak during October-December 2026.

IRI also cautioned that forecast skill generally declines with longer lead times. The strongest signal is therefore the continued likelihood of El Niño through late 2026 and into early 2027, not a precise prediction for every farming district. ACAPS likewise said forecast accuracy typically decreases when the lead time exceeds about three months, and that its January-March 2027 risk assessment relies more heavily on historical patterns than on direct seasonal forecasts.

Food-security exposure

The World Bank’s June 2026 food-security update said rice output could fall by 20% to 50% in affected regions if the El Niño projection is realized. It identified South Asia, southern Africa and parts of East Asia as especially exposed.

That is a conditional estimate for affected regions, not a confirmed global decline. Food prices and availability will also depend on inventories, trade, fertilizer costs, conflict, transport and government action. The same World Bank update said fertilizer prices rose 35% during the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, adding pressure to farm production independently of any future weather losses.

ACAPS, a humanitarian analysis organization, warned that climate hazards could compound conflict, displacement, weak coping capacity and competition over water and other resources. It also noted that conditions can vary significantly within a country because cropping cycles and livelihood systems differ by location.

FAO and WFP seek early funding

The Food and Agriculture Organization and World Food Programme are seeking $202 million to support anticipatory action in 22 high-risk countries. The appeal aims to protect 8.8 million people before extreme weather causes larger losses.

FAO and WFP say they are already positioned to support 1.2 million people. An additional $167 million would expand coverage by 7.6 million people, bringing the total planned coverage to 8.8 million across countries in Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

The proposed measures include cash assistance, drought-tolerant or flood-resistant seed, livestock protection, water harvesting and storage, flood-protection infrastructure, agricultural advisories and early-warning information. The agencies are requesting the money; the $202 million is not described as funding already secured.

What happens next

The next test is whether donors finance the appeal and whether national agencies convert regional forecasts into timely farm and humanitarian measures. Governments, traders and aid groups will be watching rainfall, heat, reservoir levels, planting conditions and crop calendars as the event develops.

For rural communities, early action may be more important than a single global forecast number. Cash, seed, water storage, livestock support and clear advisories can help families protect production before the most damaging weather arrives. The immediate change is not a confirmed harvest collapse, but a substantially stronger risk signal and a narrower window for preparation.

Sources

Look for updates to this story

Discover more from Interactive News

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.