The South China Sea Code of Conduct still faces three unresolved questions
ASEAN and China are aiming to conclude a South China Sea Code of Conduct by the end of 2026, but the proposed pact remains under negotiation. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro said three core questions are still open: the code’s geographic scope, its legal nature and its relationship with the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.
The issue came into focus during the China-ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting on July 22 and the 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and related meetings held July 22-24 in Manila, Philippines. ASEAN ministers said negotiations had made significant progress and looked toward concluding an effective and substantive code within the year. China’s Foreign Ministry separately described 2026 as an important opportunity and said the parties expected an early conclusion.
Those statements describe diplomatic momentum and a negotiating goal—not a completed, signed or legally binding agreement.
What changed in Manila
Lazaro said negotiators have met every month since January, a faster schedule that she presented as evidence of political will among ASEAN members and China. She also said the parties had reached growing consensus on self-restraint, a principle included in the negotiations’ terms of reference.
But her account also identified the issues that remain unsettled: where the code would apply, what kind of legal instrument it would be and how it would relate to the 2002 declaration. Recent incidents involving Ayungin Shoal, also known as Second Thomas Shoal, and Scarborough Shoal were included in the continuing discussions rather than treated as evidence that an agreement had been reached.
Independent reporting struck a more cautious tone. CNA reported that ministers welcomed progress while noting renewed confrontations in the contested waterway. The Associated Press said the negotiations have lasted more than two decades without resolving some of the most contentious questions, including whether the code should be legally binding.
Question one: What area would the code cover?
Geographic scope would determine which waters, operations and incidents fall under the code’s rules. A narrow scope could leave important encounters outside the framework. A broader scope could create more extensive expectations for conduct, but it would also require agreement among states with overlapping maritime claims.
The South China Sea includes overlapping claims involving China and several ASEAN members. The proposed code is being discussed as an instrument for governing conduct and behavior at sea, not as a settlement of the underlying territorial or maritime sovereignty disputes.
Question two: Would it have legal force?
The parties have not agreed on the code’s final legal character. A political commitment could set shared expectations and confidence-building measures without creating the same compliance obligations as a treaty or another legally binding instrument. A legally binding code could create stronger expectations for implementation, but it would also require agreement on the obligations states accept and on how compliance would be addressed.
That distinction is central to the negotiations. The Associated Press reported that legal binding force remains one of the major unresolved issues, while an analyst quoted by the news agency said the central roadblocks include differing interpretations of international law and disagreement over whether the code should be legally binding.
Question three: How would it relate to the 2002 declaration?
The 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties already provides a political and confidence-building framework. Its principles include self-restraint, peaceful resolution of disputes, freedom of navigation and overflight, and avoiding activities that could complicate or escalate disputes.
The ASEAN-China Plan of Action for 2026-2030 separately reaffirms the full and effective implementation of the declaration and calls for substantive progress toward an effective and substantive Code of Conduct consistent with international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS.
That parallel language explains why the relationship between the two instruments matters. Negotiators will need to clarify whether a future code supplements the declaration, implements it in greater detail or establishes a different set of commitments. The existing declaration therefore does not establish the final content or legal status of the proposed code.
UNCLOS and third-party rights
ASEAN-China planning documents describe UNCLOS and other recognized principles of international law as anchors for the negotiations. Lazaro also said the proposed code should respect the rights of third parties.
That point matters because a regional code would govern the conduct of its participating parties, while questions involving other governments’ rights, maritime operations or legal positions could extend beyond the negotiating table. The statement is a Philippine position within the talks, not proof that all parties have agreed on the final wording.
Why the deadline matters
The year-end objective gives negotiators a political deadline while maritime tensions continue. It signals that ASEAN and China want to demonstrate progress on a longstanding regional security issue, but it does not guarantee that the parties will reach agreement or that any agreement would immediately be enforceable.
The next meaningful evidence will be the text of negotiated provisions: language defining geographic scope, clauses describing legal status, treatment of third-party rights, and mechanisms for implementation and compliance. Another statement of support would show continued diplomacy, but not completion of the pact.
For now, the clearest takeaway is that the South China Sea Code of Conduct remains a work in progress. The diplomatic process has accelerated, but its practical effect will depend on what the final document covers, what it requires and how the parties agree to carry it out.
Sources
- Philippine Information Agency: ASEAN-China code target
- ASEAN-China Plan of Action 2026-2030
- CNA/Reuters: ASEAN sees progress on South China Sea code
- Associated Press: ASEAN diplomats and the South China Sea pact
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