UNHCR Warns on July 22 of Renewed Displacement Risks Across the Middle East and South Asia

UNHCR warned on July 22 that renewed hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan are producing new internal displacement in both countries, adding pressure to humanitarian systems already strained by the wider Middle East escalation.

The United Nations refugee agency’s new Middle East Situation population-movement map says protection needs are rising across the affected region. It also identifies risks of further internal displacement, new cross-border outflows and onward movements toward neighboring countries.

The warning covers Lebanon, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the wider Middle East and adjacent Asian region. UNHCR said the region already hosted more than 31 million forcibly displaced people and recent returnees before the escalation that began on February 28, 2026.

A regional crisis with multiple displacement pressures

UNHCR’s update does not provide one consolidated new regional displacement total. Instead, the July 22 map describes changing operational conditions and identifies where movement and protection risks are increasing. Some displacement figures rely on government or humanitarian estimates and may be revised.

The agency said the renewed Afghanistan-Pakistan hostilities had generated new internally displaced people in both countries. That development adds a separate pressure point to a crisis already affecting communities and host countries across the Middle East.

UNHCR also warned of a possible increase in returns of Afghans from neighboring countries under adverse conditions. Such returns would add to protection concerns even if they did not initially appear as new international refugee movements.

The agency’s language points to a risk, not a confirmed mass international refugee exodus. The available update does not establish a single region-wide count of new cross-border arrivals.

Existing displacement makes new movement harder to absorb

Earlier UNHCR reporting said more than 330,000 people had been forcibly displaced during the first phase of the crisis by March 5. That figure provided an early baseline for displacement linked to the Middle East hostilities and the Afghanistan-Pakistan clashes.

UNHCR’s emergency reporting later described the scale of movement in individual countries. It said 1 million people had been displaced in Lebanon since March 2, according to the agency’s emergency page. In Iran, government data indicated that an estimated 600,000 to 1 million households had temporarily left their homes.

Those figures describe different measures: people in Lebanon, households in Iran and an earlier count of people forcibly displaced during the crisis’s first phase. They should not be added together as a single total.

The broader significance is capacity. Before February 28, the wider affected region was already hosting more than 31 million forcibly displaced people and recent returnees. New internal movement, arrivals from neighboring countries or pressured returns can increase demands on shelter, registration, legal protection, health services and other humanitarian assistance.

What UNHCR is preparing to do

UNHCR said its operational response includes preparedness, protection monitoring and support for humanitarian assistance. The agency’s Iran Flash Refugee Response Plan targets 1.65 million Afghan and Iraqi refugees and other people needing international protection, as well as 1 million members of host communities and 150,000 Afghans of other status.

The plan is a response target, not a report that all of those people have newly moved because of the latest hostilities. Its inclusion shows the scale of the population covered by the agency’s planning as conditions develop.

For governments and aid organizations, the next step is continued monitoring of population movements, protection conditions and humanitarian needs. UNHCR’s July 22 map provides an operational warning rather than a final accounting of displacement. The agency’s stated focus is preparedness and assistance as the risk of internal and cross-border movement evolves.