UNICEF: 347 million children may face unusual wet or dry conditions

UNICEF warned Tuesday, October 6, 2026, that more than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories live in areas forecast to experience unusually wet or dry conditions from October through December as a strengthening El Niño develops.

The figure is an estimate of exposure, not a prediction that all 347 million children will be harmed. UNICEF says the children are in areas where unusual precipitation is forecast with a 70 percent probability. The effects will depend on local infrastructure, conflict, poverty, health services and how quickly governments and aid agencies prepare.

Asia and the Pacific have the largest projected exposure

About 190 million of the children identified by UNICEF are in Asia and the Pacific. East and Southern Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean each account for about 41 million projected exposures. The estimates also include children in Europe and Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and West and Central Africa.

UNICEF cited drier conditions in countries including Colombia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines. In those settings, reduced rainfall could increase the risk of agricultural drought and water shortages, with possible consequences for food access, displacement and acute malnutrition.

In the Greater Horn of Africa, especially Somalia, wetter-than-normal conditions could increase the risk of river and flash flooding, waterborne disease and interruptions to schooling. Children in crisis-affected countries such as Afghanistan and Chad may face greater danger because conflict, displacement and limited access to essential services can make families less able to absorb another shock.

Why children and families are vulnerable

UNICEF said the forecast could contribute to school closures, disrupted attendance, food and water shortages, disease, malnutrition and displacement if the anticipated weather conditions materialize. Families under severe pressure may also face higher risks of separation, violence and exploitation.

The World Health Organization said its September health analysis is intended to support country- and region-specific risk assessments, disease surveillance, preparedness and anticipatory action. The World Meteorological Organization has warned that El Niño-related heat and changing rainfall can add to risks involving wildfire smoke, mosquito-borne disease, cholera, malnutrition and food insecurity.

Those risks are not evenly distributed. A flood in one region and a drought in another can create different pressures on children, schools, clinics and household finances. At a United Nations briefing on October 6, the WHO representative in Sudan said poor rainfall and crop failures were already contributing to food insecurity and worsening malnutrition in Darfur, while the anticipated effects of a strong El Niño could add to needs in a conflict-affected setting.

What the estimate does — and does not — show

UNICEF combined a September seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with WorldPop child-population data and an El Niño precipitation footprint based on historical events from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University. The analysis used an approximate spatial resolution of 110 kilometers, so its regional figures are broad population estimates rather than precise local counts.

UNICEF said the figures are not estimates of confirmed damage, illness, deaths or displacement. They identify places where unusual precipitation is likely and where the risk of drought, flooding or related disruption may be elevated. Forecast uncertainty varies by region, and seasonal outlooks may change as new information becomes available. The analysis reflects conditions and forecasts available through September 2026.

Why the warning matters now

WMO says El Niño is forecast to intensify into a very strong event by the end of 2026. UNICEF is urging governments, donors and humanitarian agencies to use the lead time to pre-position supplies, protect schools and clinics, strengthen climate-resilient services, expand disease surveillance and arrange early financing.

For families, the immediate implication is uncertainty rather than a uniform global emergency. Local authorities may update flood, heat, drought or health guidance as forecasts are revised. UNICEF’s central message is that preparation before impacts peak can reduce disruption to children’s health, education, food access and family stability.

Sources

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