WMO Confirms El Niño Is Developing, Urges Governments to Prepare for Extreme Weather
The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific and urged governments and humanitarian agencies to prepare for elevated risks from extreme heat and other disruptive weather in the coming months.
The organization’s Global Seasonal Climate Update identified developing El Niño conditions during July-September 2026. WMO said the phenomenon could influence weather and climate patterns worldwide, raising the potential for heat, drought and flooding risks in different regions.
The update is a forecast and preparedness warning, not a report that a global disaster has already occurred. The severity and regional distribution of any effects remain uncertain, and the assessment does not establish specific losses attributable to this El Niño episode.
From probability to developing conditions
WMO’s earlier forecast cited an 80% probability that El Niño conditions would emerge during June-August 2026. The later update confirmed development during July-September, an overlapping period in which the climate pattern was expected to become more established.
El Niño is associated with changes in the tropical Pacific that can affect atmospheric circulation beyond the region. Those changes can shift established rainfall and temperature patterns across multiple continents. The same event can increase the likelihood of hotter or drier conditions in some places while contributing to heavier rainfall or flooding risks elsewhere.
WMO said the event could continue through at least November 2026. That outlook gives public authorities and humanitarian organizations a planning window before potential effects intensify or become more clearly distributed by region.
Why the warning matters
Weather-sensitive governments, aid agencies and other climate-sensitive sectors use seasonal outlooks to assess risks before emergencies occur. WMO forecasting products support the United Nations and humanitarian agencies as they plan for weather-related threats that may affect more than one region at the same time.
The practical concern is not that every location will experience the same conditions. El Niño’s influence varies by region, and a global climate signal does not determine the exact timing, intensity or location of individual heat waves, droughts or floods. But the developing pattern can change the background conditions against which those hazards occur.
For governments, the warning means preparing for a range of possible outcomes rather than waiting for a single event to be confirmed. Humanitarian agencies can use the forecast to review assessments and readiness, while authorities in exposed areas can continue monitoring temperature and rainfall risks as new observations become available.
What happens next
The next phase is continued monitoring as the July-September development period progresses and the forecast horizon extends through at least November. Additional observations and updates will help clarify how the event evolves and how its effects may be distributed around the world.
The 80% figure describes the probability of El Niño emergence during the June-August forecast period; it does not predict a fixed number of disasters, deaths or economic losses. Nor does the confirmation of developing conditions establish that the episode will be record-strength.
For now, WMO’s message is focused on preparedness. El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific, its potential influence is global, and governments and humanitarian agencies are being urged to account for increased weather risks while the event’s eventual severity and regional consequences remain unresolved.
Sources
- UN Geneva Press Briefing, United Nations Office at Geneva
- UN warns of extreme heat risk from El Niño and urges preparedness, Reuters
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