WMO Says El Niño Is Developing, With Higher Odds of Global Heat and Rainfall Extremes in 2026

The World Meteorological Organization said June 2 that El Niño conditions were developing in the tropical Pacific, raising the likelihood of wider heat, rainfall and drought disruptions during the second half of 2026.

The agency estimated an 80% probability that El Niño would emerge during June–August 2026. That probability rises to about 90% for September–December 2026, according to the WMO’s El Niño/La Niña bulletin.

The forecast is not a prediction that every country will experience the same effect, or that any particular disaster has already been caused by El Niño. It is a global climate-risk signal that can influence weather patterns far beyond the tropical Pacific.

What the WMO forecast says

Most forecast models indicated that the developing event would reach at least moderate strength, the WMO said. A strong event remained possible, but the agency also stressed that the eventual peak strength was still uncertain.

That distinction matters. The WMO is describing probabilities and likely climate effects, rather than declaring that a strong El Niño is certain or specifying exactly when and where a particular extreme event will occur.

El Niño is associated with changes in the tropical Pacific that can affect atmospheric circulation and redistribute heat and moisture. In its June bulletin, the WMO said the phenomenon can worsen some heatwaves and heavy-rainfall extremes by adding heat and moisture to the climate system.

Why the outlook matters globally

Changes in rainfall and temperature patterns can create different risks in different places. Some areas may face increased rainfall or flooding concerns, while others may confront drier conditions, drought or heightened heat. The source packet does not identify a specific country as certain to experience any one of those outcomes.

The practical stakes extend beyond weather forecasts. The WMO identified potential consequences for disaster response, agriculture, water systems and communities that are especially vulnerable to climate extremes.

For emergency planners, a higher probability of El Niño is a reason to review preparations for multiple hazards rather than wait for a single, precise prediction. Farmers and water managers may also need to account for the possibility that seasonal conditions will depart from normal expectations, although the bulletin does not provide a country-by-country operational forecast.

The outlook is also relevant to people in the United States and other English-speaking countries because El Niño’s potential effects are global. The WMO’s warning concerns broad changes in climate patterns, not only conditions in the Pacific region.

What comes next

The immediate forecast windows are June–August 2026 and September–December 2026. The WMO also published a Global Seasonal Climate Update for June–July–August 2026 on June 25, providing official seasonal forecast context for the risks associated with the developing El Niño.

Further confidence about the event will depend on how conditions evolve through those forecast periods. The WMO’s current assessment leaves the peak strength unresolved, so the eventual severity of the global effects cannot yet be determined from this outlook alone.

What is clear is the direction of the risk assessment: the probability of El Niño is high, especially for September–December, and the phenomenon could intensify some heat and heavy-rainfall extremes worldwide. The forecast gives governments, response agencies, agricultural operators and water managers advance notice to prepare for a more volatile climate pattern while recognizing that local outcomes remain uncertain.