WMO Warns Developing El Niño Could Raise Global Weather Risks in 2026

The World Meteorological Organization said June 2 that El Niño conditions were developing in the tropical Pacific, raising the prospect of broader shifts in weather and climate patterns during 2026. WMO estimated an 80% probability that El Niño would emerge between June and August, increasing to about 90% for the September-through-December period.

Most forecast models pointed to an event of at least moderate strength, with the possibility of a strong event. WMO said the warmer ocean conditions associated with El Niño could worsen some climate extremes, including heatwaves and heavy rainfall. El Niño-related patterns could also increase drought risk and alter tropical-cyclone activity in some regions.

The pattern is a major driver of global weather and climate conditions, with potential consequences for agriculture, water systems, hydropower, trade and disaster preparedness. The June update was a forecast rather than a confirmation that El Niño had formally emerged by Aug. 9, and it did not establish a final event strength or country-by-country effects. The next period covered by the outlook is September through December 2026, when WMO’s estimated probability remains about 90%.