WMO warns El Niño could strengthen rapidly, raising global extreme-weather risks
The World Meteorological Organization said July 3 that weak El Niño conditions had developed in the tropical Pacific and were forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event during July–September 2026. The shift raises the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather across multiple regions during the second half of the year.
The assessment is a global seasonal forecast, not a declaration that every country or region will experience a disaster. WMO said the precise strength of the event and its regional effects remain uncertain. Its bulletin does not identify exact local outcomes, and El Niño alone cannot be used to attribute a particular flood, fire or heatwave.
What WMO is forecasting
WMO said the Niño 3.4 seasonal mean reached 0.5°C during March–May 2026, consistent with the development of weak El Niño conditions. The agency forecast rapid strengthening during July–September, when the event could reach strong El Niño conditions.
The forecast builds on WMO’s June bulletin. That update estimated an 80% probability that El Niño would emerge during June–August 2026. It put the probability at about 90% through September–December 2026 and warned that El Niño can worsen heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
WMO said its assessment uses multi-model seasonal climate forecasts and input from international meteorological services. Those tools indicate a heightened likelihood of certain weather patterns; they do not provide certainty for an individual community.
Why the development matters
El Niño can shift rainfall and temperature patterns across continents. That makes the forecast relevant to disaster preparedness, food production and water systems, as well as to populations already vulnerable to extreme weather.
For public agencies and communities, the immediate significance is the need to interpret the seasonal outlook alongside local forecasts and preparedness planning. A higher probability of extreme conditions does not establish which places will be hit or how severe the effects will be. The practical concern is that several types of hazard—including heat, drought and heavy rainfall—may become more likely during the same broad period.
The risks also extend beyond a single weather event. Changes in rainfall can affect water planning and agricultural decisions, while heatwaves and heavy rain can create demands for emergency preparation. The approved forecast does not quantify those effects or assign specific outcomes to individual countries.
Global context and next steps
The forecast comes as the U.N. climate system is emphasizing the mounting costs associated with climate-related hazards. In a July 28 statement, U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell cited severe wildfires, heatwaves and floods affecting Europe and other regions, along with rising economic and humanitarian costs. That statement provides current context but does not independently quantify WMO’s El Niño forecast.
The next known phase is the July–September 2026 period identified by WMO as the window in which rapid strengthening and potentially strong El Niño conditions are forecast. Meteorological agencies will continue to refine the event’s expected intensity and regional effects as new observations and seasonal forecasts become available.
For now, WMO’s message is about elevated risk rather than certainty: El Niño has developed, the probability of strengthening is high in the agency’s outlook, and the consequences will depend on how the event evolves and how its influence interacts with conditions in particular regions.
Sources
- El Niño is forecast to intensify, increasing likelihood of extreme weather, World Meteorological Organization
- Launch of the WMO El Niño/La Niña Bulletin, World Meteorological Organization
- UN Climate Chief: The climate alarm is blaring, from every direction, UNFCCC
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