WMO Warns El Niño Could Strengthen Sharply as Pacific Waters Rise Above 2°C

El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific and could strengthen rapidly through September, the World Meteorological Organization said July 3, raising the likelihood of heatwaves, drought, heavy rainfall, flooding and marine heatwaves across affected regions.

WMO’s July global seasonal climate update said forecast models consistently showed warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Seasonal-average sea-surface-temperature anomalies were expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions, a level consistent with the possibility of a strong event during July-September 2026.

The agency cautioned that the eventual peak strength and timing remain uncertain, and that El Niño’s effects vary by region and depend on other climate drivers. The forecast signals increased risk rather than certainty that a particular disaster will occur.

WMO said it is coordinating climate-information services and early-warning support for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, health, energy, water resources, ecosystems, trade and supply chains. In a related initiative, the Food and Agriculture Organization and World Food Programme are supporting anticipatory action from June 2026 through March 2027 across Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean, where strong El Niño conditions are expected to intensify drought and flood risks.