WMO Warns on July 3, 2026, That El Niño Is Intensifying, Raising Global Heat, Flood and Drought Risks

The World Meteorological Organization said on July 3, 2026, that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to intensify during July-September, increasing the likelihood of significant weather and climate impacts around the world.

The update is a seasonal outlook, not a declaration that a particular country will experience a specific disaster. But it gives national meteorological services, humanitarian agencies and governments a new signal to use in preparing for possible heat, heavy rainfall, floods and drought during the current season.

What changed in the Pacific

According to the WMO’s July seasonal update, the March-May 2026 season transitioned from ENSO-neutral conditions to weak El Niño conditions. The seasonal mean Niño 3.4 index, a key measure of tropical Pacific conditions, reached 0.5 degrees Celsius during that period.

The index also rose during the season, from 0.0 degrees Celsius in March to 0.9 degrees Celsius in May. The WMO said its monthly update indicated rapid development toward a strong El Niño event during July-September.

El Niño is a climate pattern centered on unusually warm conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific. Its atmospheric effects can alter seasonal patterns far beyond the Pacific, but the consequences are not the same everywhere and are shaped by other climate drivers.

A forecast with high odds, but not a fixed outcome

The July outlook follows a June WMO update that estimated an 80 percent probability of El Niño emerging during June-August. That earlier update put the chances of the pattern continuing through the later part of the year at near 90 percent, with probabilities through September-December also described as near 90 percent in the approved seasonal assessment.

The new forecast raises the likelihood of extreme heat, heavy rainfall, floods and drought, the WMO said. It does not establish that El Niño caused any particular flood, drought, heat wave or other event, and it does not provide a certain forecast for a specific country.

The WMO continues to identify two important uncertainties: how strong El Niño will become at its peak and how its effects will be distributed region by region. Seasonal impacts vary depending on location and on other climate patterns operating at the same time.

Why the outlook matters

The immediate significance is preparedness. A shift toward stronger El Niño conditions can affect planning for heat exposure, rainfall, water availability, agricultural operations and energy demand. Health authorities may need to consider the implications of extreme heat, while water managers and emergency planners may use the outlook when assessing potential stress from unusually wet or dry conditions.

The risks are global in scope, but the WMO’s update does not assign a uniform effect to all regions. Some areas may face increased rainfall risks, while others may confront greater drought or heat concerns. The forecast is therefore a basis for regional monitoring and planning rather than a single worldwide prediction.

For the United States and other English-speaking countries, the practical message is to follow national and regional meteorological services as they translate the global signal into local seasonal guidance. The WMO’s assessment is designed to support that work across countries and institutions.

What happens next

The July-September outlook will be used during the current season as meteorological services and humanitarian agencies refine regional assessments. The next key questions are whether El Niño reaches the projected strength and how its effects develop in individual regions.

For now, the WMO’s message is one of elevated risk and preparation, not certainty. The organization’s July 3 update provides evidence that the Pacific pattern is strengthening, while leaving the exact timing, peak intensity and local consequences unresolved.