WMO warns on July 3 that strengthening El Niño could raise global risk of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rain

The World Meteorological Organization said July 3 that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly toward a strong event during July–September 2026. The warning raises the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather in many parts of the world.

The forecast gives governments, humanitarian agencies, agriculture and health authorities a current window to prepare for conditions that can disrupt climate-sensitive activities and increase pressure on emergency planning. It is not, however, a guarantee that a particular country will experience a specific disaster.

A rapid shift in the Pacific

El Niño is a climate pattern centered on unusually warm ocean conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific. In its July 3 assessment, the WMO said forecast models pointed to rapid strengthening toward a strong El Niño event in the July–September period.

The organization said projected seasonal sea-surface-temperature anomalies were above 2°C in key monitoring regions. That figure describes conditions in the monitored Pacific waters; it should not be treated as a direct forecast of local air temperatures or as a guarantee of a heatwave in any particular location.

A WMO global seasonal climate update published May 20 had already forecast a rapid transition to strong El Niño conditions. For June–August 2026, the model ensemble projected an approximately 1.8°C seasonal-average anomaly and reported high forecast confidence at that stage.

Why the warning matters

El Niño can alter weather patterns well beyond the tropical Pacific. The WMO said the developing event increases the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events across many parts of the world.

The forecast therefore matters less as a prediction of one named disaster than as an early planning signal. Governments can use the warning when reviewing preparedness, while humanitarian agencies can strengthen climate-information and early-warning support for communities that may face elevated weather risks.

Agriculture and health are among the sectors identified as relevant to the warning. Changes in heat, rainfall and drought risk can affect planning in climate-sensitive sectors, although the WMO’s assessment does not provide a single global estimate for casualties or economic damage.

What is known—and what is not

The WMO’s language concerns increased likelihood, not certainty. The assessment does not identify a guaranteed heatwave, drought or flood for a particular country, and it does not attribute any specific disaster to the developing El Niño.

Local effects will depend on how the broader climate pattern interacts with regional conditions. The available forecast establishes a global risk signal and a period of concern, but not a precise list of locations that will experience extreme weather.

What happens next

The WMO said it was expanding coordination, climate-information services and early-warning support as the forecast develops. The key forecast window is July–September 2026, when the organization expects the event to strengthen toward the strong category.

For governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors, the immediate next step is preparation rather than response to a confirmed disaster. The WMO’s warning provides time to assess risks and use updated climate information as conditions in the Pacific evolve.