WMO and NOAA: Strengthening El Niño odds—humanitarian readiness
El Niño is forecast to strengthen for July–September 2026. WMO/NOAA updates raise odds of heat, drought, and heavy rain—key inputs for humanitarian readiness.
Early-July climate updates from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the U.S. NOAA forecast system point to a key shift for the next season: El Niño is strengthening, and the odds for heat, drought, and heavy rain rise for July–September 2026 across multiple regions. That matters because humanitarian planning is time-sensitive—seasonal conditions shape when health, food, water, and relief logistics face the most strain.
What WMO expects for July–September 2026
In its Global Seasonal Climate Update for July–August–September 2026 (updated 3 July 2026), WMO says a rapid development into a strong El Niño is forecast. By JAS 2026, WMO’s multi-model ensemble is forecast to reach about 2.0°C for the seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies in the El Niño monitoring region, with high forecast confidence (models showing relatively narrow spread during the JAS 2026 window).
WMO’s risk guidance is probabilistic—useful for planning, not a guarantee of local extremes everywhere. But the directional tilts are clear:
- Heat odds: WMO projects enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures over landmasses, especially between 60°S and 60°N, including large parts of northern Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, and eastern Asia, as well as parts of western North America and Central America/Caribbean.
- Rain odds: WMO’s strongest precipitation signal is enhanced probability for above-normal rainfall across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line, paired with an extensive below-normal rainfall probability region over parts of the tropical Indian Ocean and the equatorial Atlantic. WMO also describes regional dry/wet contrasts affecting places such as the Indian subcontinent, Australia, equatorial Africa, Central America/Caribbean, and portions of Europe.
NOAA’s diagnostic: strengthening and likely persistence into 2027
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (issued 9 July 2026) reinforces WMO’s strengthening picture and extends the planning horizon. NOAA says El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.
NOAA also reports an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October–December, and notes the next ENSO diagnostics update is scheduled for 13 August 2026.
Why seasonal “odds” translate into humanitarian risks
El Niño doesn’t create one uniform disaster pattern. Instead, climate odds shift the baseline conditions that influence vulnerability—especially where health systems, water systems, and food supply chains are already under pressure. ACAPS frames the humanitarian relevance through the hazards likely to follow when temperature and precipitation anomalies intersect with conflict and socioeconomic stressors.
Heat stress and health system pressure
When temperature odds tilt upward, the risk of heatwaves rises. In humanitarian settings, that can mean higher rates of heat-related illness, additional strain on facilities that provide cooling and care, and elevated wildfire exposure where drought and dry fuels coincide. ACAPS includes heatwaves and wildfires among the main hazards anticipated in affected regions.
Drought, food insecurity, and water scarcity
Where rainfall probabilities tilt downward, drought becomes a key driver of harm. ACAPS links drought-related conditions to food insecurity, nutrition challenges, and broader health impacts—often through reduced livelihood yields, reduced access to safe water, and worsening malnutrition risk.
Heavy rain, flooding, and WASH-linked disease pathways
Where rainfall odds tilt upward, flooding and related disruption can follow. ACAPS highlights waterborne and vector-borne disease outbreaks of high concern in multiple countries, explicitly naming cholera, dengue, and malaria in the hazard picture.
ACAPS: countries to watch for severe humanitarian impacts
ACAPS describes its analysis as a planning aid—not a claim that specific disasters will occur on specific dates. In its hazards brief (dated 7 July 2026), ACAPS identifies “countries at highest risk of severe humanitarian impacts” between July 2026 and March 2027. That list includes:
- Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Mozambique, Pakistan, The Philippines, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan.
What preparedness can look like before the peak season
Because seasonal forecasts reduce uncertainty for planning—but don’t eliminate it—the most practical use is early, flexible readiness. For humanitarian and public-health actors, that typically means:
- Heat readiness: activate heat-health protocols and outreach for high-risk groups; prepare surge plans for health facilities where above-normal temperature odds are elevated.
- Drought/food planning: align water and food logistics with drought-exposed livelihood zones where rainfall deficits are more likely.
- Flood/WASH contingency: pre-position WASH supplies and strengthen water-safety planning for areas facing higher heavy-rain and flooding odds; pair response planning with disease surveillance for waterborne and vector-borne pathways.
- Act early, but don’t overclaim: WMO and NOAA stress uncertainty and probability-based guidance; outcomes depend on local vulnerability, infrastructure, governance capacity, and how quickly early actions are taken.
What to watch next: follow the next NOAA ENSO diagnostics update on 13 August 2026, and pair global seasonal signals with country-level vulnerability and hazard briefings to decide where readiness investments will pay off first.
Sources
- WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update for JAS 2026
- NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (9 July 2026)
- ACAPS El Niño humanitarian hazards brief (7 July 2026)
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