Federal drought update puts nearly half of Lower 48 in drought

A federal drought update published July 30 found that 47.89% of the Lower 48 was in drought as of July 28, with conditions worsening for a third consecutive week across large parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

The National Drought Status page also reported that 40.07% of the United States and Puerto Rico was in drought. Those percentages describe conditions valid through July 28, 2026; they do not measure weather that occurred after that date.

What changed in the latest assessment

The national pattern is uneven rather than uniformly worse. Drought expanded or intensified across large parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, while heavy precipitation brought improvement to portions of the Eastern United States. The West saw a mix of improvement and degradation.

The U.S. Drought Monitor uses five categories, from D0, or abnormally dry, through D4, or exceptional drought. The categories describe the severity of moisture shortages and related effects, but conditions can differ within a classified area depending on local rainfall, soil, water supplies and infrastructure.

Water supplies are under pressure in some regions

Federal regional reporting documents below-normal groundwater and streamflows, dry wells, water restrictions and declining reservoirs or underground wells in affected areas. Those conditions can put additional pressure on household wells, municipal systems, farms and other water users.

A July 16 Mid-Atlantic drought update reported groundwater levels much below normal in parts of the region, mixed streamflows, dry wells and water restrictions, along with crop and tree stress. It also said heavy rainfall had improved drought conditions in some areas and that further improvement was expected. Because the report reflects information available on July 16, it is a regional snapshot, not a newer nationwide measurement.

For residents and businesses, the practical effects can include limits on outdoor water use, greater reliance on stored or pumped supplies and more pressure on local water systems. The severity depends on local infrastructure, recent rainfall and the condition of individual wells, reservoirs and streams.

Farms and vegetation are also showing stress

Drought can reduce soil moisture and increase irrigation pressure even when conditions vary from one county or watershed to the next. Federal updates describe stress affecting crops, trees and other vegetation, as well as agricultural losses in some affected areas.

Those reports document pressure on farms and agricultural users, but they do not establish that drought has caused a particular nationwide food-price increase. Any consumer-price effects would depend on the crop, the region, the scale of production losses and broader market conditions.

Heat and dryness can raise fire risk

Heat and dry vegetation can increase wildfire or brush-fire risk, but fire conditions also depend on wind, fuel moisture, terrain and recent weather. The Associated Press reported safety warnings and wildfire concerns during a record-breaking heat wave in parts of the Western United States.

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are also affected U.S. jurisdictions. A July 23 federal update for the U.S. Caribbean described water rationing, critically low streams, declining reservoirs and underground wells, stressed vegetation, agricultural losses and limited replenishment of household cisterns. It reported more than 300 brush-fire reports in Puerto Rico during July.

What to watch through October

NOAA’s August-through-October Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for a mixed pattern rather than uniform deterioration nationwide. Its discussion favors persistence or further expansion in some northern areas and the U.S. Caribbean, while projecting improvement in portions of the West and Plains. The outlook is a forecast, not a policy decision or a guarantee of local conditions.

Readers should monitor weekly Drought Monitor updates, local water restrictions, streamflow and groundwater notices, reservoir conditions and fire-weather alerts. The next weekly assessments will show whether worsening conditions continue in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest or whether rainfall produces further improvement in the East and elsewhere.

Sources

• National Drought Status, Drought.gov — July 30, 2026
• Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
• Record-breaking heat wave prompts safety warnings across Western U.S., Associated Press