NOAA outlook keeps much of U.S. tilted toward heat through October

NOAA’s latest seasonal outlook keeps much of the United States tilted toward above-normal temperatures through October, while its updated drought assessment shows a sharply divided map. The outlook is a planning signal for heat exposure, wildfire readiness, water management and agriculture—not a promise that every community will be hotter or drier every day.

The Climate Prediction Center’s August-through-October outlook, issued July 16, favors above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States and Alaska. A broad area of higher probabilities covers the West, South and East, with the strongest odds in the Northwest, southwestern Texas and parts of the Southeast. NOAA shows equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal temperatures across parts of the north-central United States, including portions of the Northern Plains, Central Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Upper Great Lakes and Middle Mississippi Valley.

What NOAA is forecasting

NOAA’s precipitation outlook is more mixed than its temperature outlook. Above-normal precipitation is favored from the Southwest into parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern and Central Plains, as well as sections of the Middle Mississippi, western Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Below-normal precipitation is favored in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes.

For August specifically, NOAA’s July 31 monthly outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the western and southern two-thirds of the contiguous United States. Confidence is greater than 50% across much of the Southern Plains and along coastal California. Confidence is lower across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast and much of Alaska, where the forecast signals are less consistent.

El Niño is strengthening, but effects vary

NOAA says El Niño strengthened during the month before its July 16 outlook and is expected to intensify through 2026 before continuing into early 2027. The agency gives the event an 81% chance of reaching very strong status during October through December 2026.

That signal helps shape the seasonal outlook, but El Niño does not produce the same result everywhere. Its influence depends on the season, location and other factors, including longer-term temperature trends, soil moisture and nearby ocean conditions. NOAA’s outlook therefore describes probabilities over broad regions rather than a uniform national outcome.

The drought map is not one national story

NOAA’s updated August-through-October drought assessment says persistence has become more likely across the High Plains and is also favored in remaining drought areas of southern Texas. Possible drought development across the northern Plains remains in the forecast.

At the same time, NOAA forecasts drought improvement in the Southeast and across parts of the Four Corners and Rockies, where enhanced monsoon moisture is expected to help reduce drought. The agency also notes that the updated map reflects newer guidance and a more western focus to monsoon activity. Rainfall that improves conditions in one region therefore does not eliminate heat or drought risk elsewhere.

Why the outlook matters for planning

Heat can increase risks for people working or exercising outdoors and can raise the need for cooling and hydration. It can also add stress to crops and water systems. Heat combined with dry soils, low humidity or strong winds can increase wildfire concerns and complicate fire operations, even when seasonal precipitation is forecast to be near normal or above normal in part of a region.

A Western heat wave reported by The Associated Press illustrates why agencies and residents may use the outlook as an early planning signal. AP reported near-record or record temperatures from Arizona to Montana, cooling-center use in Phoenix and heightened wildfire concerns as heat reduced moisture and afternoon relative humidity in parts of the region. That was a short-term weather event, not proof that NOAA’s seasonal outlook guarantees continued extreme heat everywhere in the West.

What the outlook cannot tell you

A seasonal outlook cannot determine the temperature in a particular town on a particular day. It also cannot predict every heat wave, thunderstorm, rainfall total or fire’s behavior. Seasonal precipitation probabilities do not replace local forecasts, heat advisories, red-flag warnings, drought monitors or emergency instructions.

Farmers, water managers, utilities, outdoor employers and emergency planners can use the broad probabilities to review staffing, cooling, irrigation, communications and wildfire preparations. Residents should rely on their local National Weather Service office and local emergency-management alerts for operational decisions.

NOAA’s next scheduled seasonal and drought updates are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on August 20, 2026. New observations and model guidance could change the regional probabilities.

Sources

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook, July 16, 2026
• Associated Press Western heat report

Look for updates to this story

Related News

• July Was the Hottest Month Ever Recorded in the Lower 48, NOAA Says
• OPM expands USA Hire skills assessments across federal jobs
• A 50% U.S. tariff on selected Canadian dairy imports is scheduled for August 19
• White House pushes agencies toward mission-driven U.S. research