NOAA warns of prolonged western heat wave and rising drought risk through Aug. 10
NOAA is warning of a prolonged heat wave across the West and elevated rapid-onset drought risk in several central and eastern agricultural regions, with heat hazards expected to continue across broad parts of the United States through Aug. 10.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s outlook identified the highest risk of extreme heat in portions of the Great Basin from Aug. 4 through Aug. 6. Moderate extreme-heat risk was forecast from Aug. 4-7 in parts of the Southern Plains, Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies and California.
A broader area covering much of the western two-thirds of the contiguous United States and the Southeast was placed under slight extreme-heat risk for Aug. 4-10. The forecast is a risk outlook, not a report of final temperatures or confirmed heat-related impacts.
Heat risk stretches across multiple regions
The forecast covers a large portion of the country rather than a single local weather system. NOAA identified the western two-thirds of the contiguous United States and the Southeast as exposed to at least some level of extreme-heat risk during the forecast window.
The National Weather Service’s Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, published Aug. 6, described dangerous and extreme heat across portions of the central United States. It said heat was expected to persist across the Mississippi Valleys, Gulf Coast, Southern Plains and portions of Texas, while the heat wave over the Southwest was forecast to intensify later in the week.
That combination means conditions can vary by region even as the broader pattern continues. The NOAA outlook places the most concentrated high-risk period in parts of the Great Basin from Aug. 4-6, while moderate risk extends across several western and southern areas through Aug. 7. Slight risk then covers a wider area through Aug. 10.
Drought and wildfire concerns
NOAA said above-normal temperatures combined with below-normal precipitation could produce rapid-onset drought in parts of the Great Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Corn Belt. A prior NOAA outlook released July 22 had also documented elevated rapid-onset drought risk in parts of the northern Great Plains, providing background for the continuing heat-and-drought pattern.
The July 27 hazards outlook also pointed to possible high winds in the Northern and Central Plains and increased wildfire risk in hot, dry areas of the Northern and Central Rockies. Those are forecast hazards, not confirmed reports of wildfire acreage, damage or emergency declarations.
The conditions have practical implications for heat illness, water demand, agriculture, wildfire conditions and outdoor work. However, the official material available for this outlook does not document specific health, agricultural or utility impacts attributable to the forecast. It also does not provide a single nationwide temperature maximum or a confirmed total for travel disruptions.
Other severe weather remains possible
The National Weather Service’s Aug. 6 summary also identified potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. That means the national weather picture includes more than heat and drought risk during the same period.
The outlook does not establish a federal disaster declaration, evacuation order or confirmed record-breaking heat wave. Actual temperatures, rainfall, wildfire activity and local impacts will determine how conditions develop after the forecast is issued.
What to watch next
The key forecast window runs through Aug. 10. The next step is continued monitoring of official forecasts as the period unfolds, particularly in the Great Basin during the Aug. 4-6 high-risk period and across the central United States and Southwest as dangerous heat persists or intensifies.
For communities in the affected regions, the forecast signals a need to track local heat and severe-weather information while conditions remain subject to change. NOAA’s outlook provides the broad national risk picture; local National Weather Service offices will provide the more specific information needed to assess conditions in individual areas.
Sources
- U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook, valid August 4-10, 2026, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
- Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, National Weather Service
- Probabilistic Hazards Outlook, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
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