Hochul leads Blakeman by 11 points in New York poll

Gov. Kathy Hochul led Republican Bruce Blakeman 53% to 42% among New York registered voters in a Marist poll conducted Oct. 1–4. The 11-point margin is a survey finding, not an election result. Marist published the poll Oct. 7, ahead of the general election scheduled for Nov. 3.

The survey interviewed 1,361 registered voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. It measured registered voters, not a sample limited to people judged likely to vote. The results reflect responses during the four-day survey period and do not determine the election outcome.

Statewide preferences vary by region

The statewide result masks contrasting regional and voter-group findings. Blakeman led among independents, while Hochul led in New York City. Upstate voters favored Blakeman, and suburban voters were divided, according to Marist.

The survey’s congressional ballot question also showed a statewide Democratic advantage, though its regional results differed. The question asked respondents which party’s candidate they would support for Congress; it was not a measure of individual district contests.

In New York City, Hochul received 69% in the governor’s contest, and 73% favored the Democratic candidate on the congressional ballot question. The poll reported Democratic support in the suburbs on the congressional question and a Republican advantage upstate. Those figures describe responses to separate survey questions, not outcomes in specific races.

Voters’ views of Trump and household finances

Marist also asked what effect President Donald Trump would have on respondents’ congressional vote. Forty-four percent said their vote was mainly against Trump, 22% said it was for him and 33% said he would have no impact. Separately, 38% approved of Trump’s job performance and 60% disapproved. These answers describe what respondents said, not a measured effect on election results.

On household finances, 40% said their family’s finances had worsened over the previous year, 18% said they had improved and 41% reported little change. Democrats were more likely than Republicans to report worsening finances: 48% of Democrats said so, compared with 23% of Republicans.

The poll provides a snapshot of registered voters’ preferences before the Nov. 3 general election. Its statewide results and regional breakdowns reflect the survey’s Oct. 1–4 field period; they are not a forecast or an official count of votes.