Census, BLS set to revise poverty estimates after coding errors

The Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics are preparing revised estimates for a widely used measure of economic hardship after BLS found coding errors in the thresholds used for the Supplemental Poverty Measure.

The agencies announced the correction on July 17, 2026. BLS has reissued the SPM threshold series for 2019 through 2024, and Census plans to publish revised poverty estimates in a working paper before its annual poverty report scheduled for September. Until that work is complete, previously published SPM rates and comparisons for the affected period should be treated as subject to revision.

What changed

BLS said the errors stemmed from methodology changes introduced in 2021 and affected the 2019 and 2020 SPM estimates. The agency is reissuing the full threshold series for 2019 through 2024 so Census can apply the corrected figures to its poverty calculations.

BLS has posted corrected SPM thresholds, standard errors of differences and threshold-share files for those years. Those files are the underlying statistical inputs. They are not revised Census poverty rates, and BLS has not released the final national or subgroup poverty estimates that Census will produce using them.

The Census Bureau said it expects to provide more information on the impact of the revised thresholds in the coming weeks. The agency has not said whether the corrected rates will be higher or lower than the previously published figures.

How the Supplemental Poverty Measure differs

The SPM is not a replacement for the official poverty measure, and this correction does not change the official poverty line.

The official measure compares money income with a national threshold adjusted for family composition. That threshold does not vary by geography.

The SPM is designed to capture more of a household’s resources and necessary expenses. It includes post-tax income and noncash assistance such as housing, utility and nutritional benefits. It also subtracts costs including work expenses, child care and medical expenses.

SPM thresholds vary by family composition, housing tenure and geography. That structure is intended to account for differences in housing costs and other basic needs that the official measure does not directly include.

Why the correction matters

Changing a poverty threshold can change who is counted as living below the SPM line. That can affect national poverty rates, subgroup comparisons and conclusions about how taxes and safety-net programs influenced hardship during the pandemic and the years that followed.

The revision is to a statistical series, not to household finances or government program rules. It does not mean that individual benefits, tax liabilities or program eligibility are being recalculated.

Researchers, policymakers and readers comparing 2019 through 2024 should therefore avoid treating the existing SPM trend as final. Older published figures remain records of what Census previously reported, but the affected rates and historical comparisons may change after the corrected thresholds are applied.

What to watch next

The next key checkpoint is the Census working paper with revised estimates. Readers should look for updated national and subgroup rates, revised historical tables, an explanation of the calculation changes and information about standard errors before drawing firm conclusions about recent SPM trends.

The bottom line: federal statistical agencies are correcting the underlying thresholds for an alternative poverty measure. The official poverty measure is unchanged, but Supplemental Poverty Measure figures for 2019 through 2024 remain subject to revision until Census publishes the corrected estimates.

Sources

• BLS Corrected Supplemental Poverty Measure Thresholds
• Census Bureau Supplemental Poverty Measure guidance