July CPI report due Aug. 12 after June energy-driven decline

The next national inflation report is scheduled for Wednesday, August 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. It will show whether the sharp energy-driven decline recorded in June continued into July.

As of August 5, June is the latest published national reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The July report will provide a new look at gasoline, groceries, rent and other household costs, but its results are not yet known.

What the June report confirmed

Consumer prices fell 0.4% in June on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, after rising 0.5% in May. Despite that monthly decline, the all-items index was up 3.5% over the 12 months ending in June.

Energy was the main reason for the monthly improvement. Energy prices fell 5.7% in June, while gasoline dropped 9.7%. But the year-over-year comparison shows why the decline should not be treated as a permanent easing of inflation: Energy prices were still up 15.7% from a year earlier, and gasoline was up 26.7%.

Food prices rose 0.2% for the month. Food purchased for use at home also increased 0.2% and was up 2.7% over the year. Food purchased away from home was up 3.4% over the year.

The index excluding food and energy was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% over the year. This measure is closely watched because it removes categories that can move sharply from month to month, although it does not represent every household’s actual budget.

Shelter prices rose 0.1% in June and 3.3% over the year. Rent increased 0.1% for the month, while owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.2%.

What July could clarify

The July report will show whether gasoline and other energy prices continued to fall, stabilized or moved higher. A lower headline number driven mainly by fuel would not necessarily mean broad relief across household expenses.

Readers should also examine groceries, shelter, insurance and services. These categories can affect budgets differently from gasoline, and their movements may provide a better indication of whether price pressures are broad or concentrated in energy.

The June figures are national averages. Individual households may have a different experience depending on where they live, how much they drive, whether they rent or own a home, and how much they spend on food, utilities, insurance and services.

Why the Federal Reserve cares

Inflation data can influence expectations about interest rates, but one CPI report will not determine the Federal Reserve’s policy path by itself. Policymakers also assess labor-market conditions, consumer spending, financial conditions and other measures of inflation.

The CPI is not the same as the personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, which the Federal Reserve generally emphasizes in its inflation analysis. The Fed’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report described inflation as elevated relative to its longer-run 2% objective and discussed the potential effects of energy-related supply shocks.

That means the July CPI may change expectations about future policy without settling what the Fed will do next. Any response would depend on the full flow of economic data and officials’ assessment of whether price pressures are broad or temporary.

How to read the release

When the report arrives, compare the monthly seasonally adjusted change with the 12-month change. Then look at both the all-items index and the index excluding food and energy.

For household planning, the most useful details may be the category movements for gasoline, groceries, rent, utilities, insurance and services. The headline figure is an important national snapshot, but it does not describe every family’s cost of living.

What happens next

The official July CPI release is scheduled for August 12 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Until then, July’s category movements and any Federal Reserve response remain unknown.

After the release, readers should watch whether the results show a broad change in price pressures or another month in which energy costs dominate the headline. That distinction will matter for household budgets and for expectations about interest rates.

Sources

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