GAO Says FEMA’s National Risk Index Needs Better Guidance
A Government Accountability Office report published and publicly released September 10, 2026, says FEMA’s National Risk Index needs clearer instructions, more consistent testing and a formal way to collect feedback from the people who use it.
The findings matter to state and local emergency managers, hazard-mitigation planners and communities that use federal risk information to help set preparedness priorities. GAO said FEMA partially followed leading practices for risk assessment and information quality during the index’s development, operation and maintenance.
The report does not conclude that FEMA’s risk scores are wrong. Instead, it says the agency has not fully documented how users should apply the scores, evaluate changes in the underlying model or provide feedback that could improve the tool.
What the National Risk Index does
FEMA oversees the National Risk Index, a national planning and risk-communication tool covering 18 natural hazards. The index combines measures including expected annual loss, social vulnerability and community resilience to illustrate disaster risk.
FEMA describes the index as information that can help communities understand risk and inform resilience and hazard-mitigation planning. A score is not a prediction that a disaster will occur in a particular place, and it does not by itself change disaster assistance, insurance eligibility, evacuation orders or federal funding formulas.
GAO says users need more practical guidance
GAO found that FEMA explained the index’s purpose, scope, methods and data, but did not provide enough practical information for emergency managers and other users to translate an index result into a decision about how to reduce risk.
The agency also did not explain how users should combine National Risk Index information with other FEMA risk tools. GAO said that gap can undermine the tool’s usefulness because a score alone does not tell a community which mitigation option is appropriate or how the result should fit into a broader planning process.
Why sensitivity analysis matters
GAO also criticized FEMA for not consistently using sensitivity analyses to verify model outputs or assess significant changes to data sources and methods.
In plain terms, sensitivity analysis tests how much a result changes when important assumptions, inputs or methods change. GAO said those tests could help users understand whether methodological choices might raise or lower a community’s risk score and how much confidence to place in comparisons.
GAO said FEMA should disclose the results of those analyses when they are conducted. That would give users more information about the limits of the index and the factors affecting its scores.
Feedback process is another gap
FEMA has a process for engaging subject-matter experts about future data updates, but GAO said the agency lacks a systematic mechanism to collect and incorporate ongoing feedback from users.
Without that process, GAO said FEMA has less information about whether the index is providing useful information for hazard-mitigation planning in the field.
DHS agreed with two recommendations
GAO issued three recommendations. The first calls for FEMA to provide additional guidance, based on common use cases, on how state and local planners should apply National Risk Index results. The third calls for a process, strategy or user group to systematically collect and incorporate user feedback.
The Department of Homeland Security concurred with those two recommendations. DHS did not concur with the recommendation on sensitivity analyses, saying planned National Risk Index data updates did not require that additional analysis.
GAO maintained that the recommendation would help the index meet federal information-quality standards. All three recommendations remain open.
What happens next
The next developments will be whether FEMA publishes new user guidance, establishes a formal feedback mechanism and changes its position on sensitivity analyses. Until then, the National Risk Index remains available as a national planning tool, but GAO’s findings suggest users should treat a high or low score as one input among several rather than as a standalone decision.
Sources
- GAO report: Improvements Needed to Enhance FEMA’s National Risk Index
- FEMA National Risk Index technical documentation
Look for updates to this story
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