BLS projects U.S. job growth as AI reshapes work
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projected Thursday, August 27, that total U.S. employment will grow over the next decade even as artificial intelligence and other technologies reshape the tasks performed across the economy.
The BLS release, issued at 10 a.m. Eastern, also introduced a framework that ranks occupations by relative exposure to AI. The agency stressed that the categories do not predict layoffs, job loss or worker replacement.
That distinction is central for workers and jobseekers. An occupation can include tasks that AI may assist with or complete without the occupation disappearing. BLS projections also incorporate population trends, industry demand, productivity, automation, consumer behavior and other assumptions.
U.S. employment is projected to grow more slowly
BLS projects total U.S. employment will rise from 170.3 million jobs in 2025 to 176.2 million in 2035. That would add 5.9 million jobs, or 3.5% growth.
The projected pace is slower than the previous decade, when employment increased 10.9% from 2015 to 2025.
BLS describes the figures as long-range estimates based on assumptions, not a forecast of the next monthly jobs report. The agency warns that precise 10-year values carry substantial uncertainty and advises readers to focus on the direction and relative size of projected changes.
What BLS means by AI exposure
The new BLS product places occupations into four relative categories: low, moderate, high and very high exposure.
According to the agency’s methodology document, the categories combine five external data sources. Three are theoretical measures of how well AI capabilities match occupational abilities or tasks. Two use observed interactions with AI systems, including Claude and Microsoft Copilot data, mapped to occupational tasks or work activities.
The observed-use measures do not directly show that workers in a particular occupation used AI on the job. The overall exposure categories are relative comparisons among occupations; they are not forecasts of employment growth or decline, wage effects, productivity gains, automation probability, AI adoption or worker replacement.
BLS also cautions that high or very high exposure does not necessarily mean employment will decline. Low exposure does not guarantee that an occupation will be unaffected by future technological change, and the categories do not distinguish between AI used for automation and AI used to augment workers.
Technical and infrastructure work are among the growth areas
The projections point to strong demand in several fields connected to computing, research and digital infrastructure. Data scientists are projected to grow 34.6% from 2025 to 2035. Computer and information research scientists are projected to grow 21.8%, while information security analysts are projected to grow 21%.
The Occupational Outlook Handbook lists those occupations among the fastest-growing detailed occupations in the projections. BLS says demand for research and development, digital tools and AI solutions is expected to support growth in computer and mathematical work.
Professional, scientific and technical services are projected to grow 8.6%, adding about 926,700 jobs. BLS says demand for AI-based systems, research and development and related consulting services is expected to contribute to that growth.
Utilities are projected to be the fastest-growing major industry sector, at 9.8%. Because the sector is relatively small, that percentage represents about 58,800 jobs. BLS says nearly all of the increase is expected in electric power generation, transmission and distribution as electricity demand rises, including demand from data centers and AI systems.
Computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting and related services are projected to grow 25.1% and add 120,400 jobs. Those figures describe projected industry employment; they do not mean BLS has isolated a specific number of jobs created by AI alone.
Office, sales and production work face projected declines
The largest projected decline is in office and administrative support. BLS expects employment in that occupational group to fall 4.0%, a net decrease of 752,100 jobs from 2025 to 2035.
Sales and related occupations are projected to decline 1.4%, while production occupations are projected to decline 0.4%.
BLS says generative AI may automate repetitive tasks and speed up some processes, potentially limiting demand in certain occupations. It also cites e-commerce, productivity gains and automated machinery as factors in the outlook. The agency does not assign every projected decline to AI, and the figures should not be treated as confirmed AI-driven layoffs.
Labor Department seeks faster AI labor data
The release comes as the Labor Department is pursuing additional information about how companies are adopting AI. Axios reported Wednesday that acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling said the department has signed memorandums of understanding with technology companies including OpenAI, Google, Meta and Amazon.
The effort remains in development. The private-sector information is intended to supplement traditional government statistics by giving officials more insight into AI adoption and its possible effects on workers. It is not a replacement for BLS surveys or the employment-projections system, and the Labor Department has said the findings are expected to be made public.
What workers should watch
For workers, the most useful question is not whether an occupation carries a single high or low AI label. It is which tasks are changing, what skills employers are seeking, what training is required and whether demand for the occupation is rising or falling.
BLS says its Occupational Outlook Handbook provides occupation-level information on projected employment, work activities, pay, education and training requirements. Those details offer more practical guidance than treating AI exposure as a stand-alone measure of job security.
The new projections show a mixed labor market: growth in technical, research, cybersecurity, infrastructure and related services alongside declines in several office, sales and production groups. The next test will be how quickly actual employer behavior and worker outcomes begin to diverge from—or confirm—the long-range outlook.
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