CBO Estimates $1.2 Trillion Federal Deficit Through First Eight Months of Fiscal 2026

The federal budget deficit reached an estimated $1.2 trillion through the first eight months of fiscal year 2026, according to the Congressional Budget Office, providing the latest official snapshot of the government’s finances before the next major budget-cycle decisions.

The estimate, published June 8, covers the period from the start of fiscal 2026 through May. It is not a final audited result for the fiscal year, and it does not mean the federal budget is balanced. The figure measures the gap between federal revenues and outlays during the first eight months of the year.

How the numbers compare

The estimated deficit was $116 billion smaller than the shortfall recorded during the comparable period of fiscal 2025. The change reflected both higher revenues and higher spending, with revenues increasing more rapidly than outlays in the CBO’s comparison.

Federal revenues rose by $174 billion, or 5%, compared with the first eight months of fiscal 2025. Outlays increased by $57 billion, or 1%. Those figures describe changes over the comparable periods; they do not establish that the deficit is declining on a lasting or structural basis.

The CBO’s report also puts the year-over-year comparison in context. Payment timing affected the figures, including payments that shifted between May and June in the prior year. As a result, the reported $116 billion reduction in the deficit does not represent a straightforward comparison of underlying fiscal conditions.

After accounting for that timing issue, the CBO said the deficit through May 2026 would have been $19 billion smaller than the comparable fiscal 2025 shortfall. That adjustment is substantially less than the unadjusted $116 billion difference.

Why payment timing matters

Federal budget totals are recorded when payments and receipts occur. When a payment moves from one month to another, the timing can change the deficit reported for each period even when the government’s broader obligations have not changed in the same way.

In this case, the CBO specifically identified payments that shifted between May and June in the prior year. That means the first-eight-month comparison includes a calendar effect that readers should consider when interpreting the apparent improvement from fiscal 2025.

The timing adjustment does not erase the reported $1.2 trillion deficit. It qualifies the comparison between years. The CBO’s figures show that the federal government continued to run a large deficit through May, while the size of the year-over-year change depends in part on when payments were recorded.

What the report does—and does not—show

The release provides a current accounting of federal revenues, outlays and the resulting deficit for part of fiscal 2026. It does not identify a specific enacted law as the cause of the revenue or spending changes, and the available report does not provide a final projection for the full fiscal year in the supplied material.

The CBO describes the $1.2 trillion figure as an estimate. Because the report covers only the first eight months of the fiscal year, later receipts, payments and other changes could affect the eventual full-year total. The final audited fiscal-year result is therefore still separate from this update.

The next point for readers is the release of additional budget information as fiscal 2026 continues and as policymakers approach the next major budget-cycle decisions. The supplied source packet does not identify a newer CBO monthly review through Aug. 6, 2026. Until a later update is available, the May report remains the cited official snapshot in this record.