Federal labor data shows where AI may grow — and where jobs may shrink
Federal labor projections offer a more measured picture of artificial intelligence and work than a simple jobs-versus-machines narrative. The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the U.S. economy to add jobs overall through 2034, while technology changes which occupations employers are likely to need.
In an AI-focused summary published July 16, 2026, BLS said the 2024–34 Employment Projections program points to strong growth in data, cybersecurity, software and research roles. At the same time, demand is projected to decline in several routine administrative, clerical, claims and customer-service occupations.
What the national projection says
BLS projects total U.S. employment will rise from about 170.0 million jobs in 2024 to 175.2 million in 2034. That is an increase of 5,211,800 jobs, or 3.1 percent.
The underlying projections were published Aug. 28, 2025, while the AI-focused interpretation was published July 16, 2026. They are long-term estimates, not a report on current layoffs or unemployment. BLS develops them using assumptions about demographics, labor-force growth, macroeconomic conditions, industries and technological change.
The national total provides important context: employment can grow even while some occupations contract. The projected gains and losses are not expected to be distributed evenly across workers, industries or regions.
Jobs BLS expects to grow
Data scientists are projected to see the fastest growth among the highlighted AI- and information-technology-related occupations, rising 33.5 percent between 2024 and 2034. That would add about 82,500 jobs.
Information-security analysts are projected to grow 28.5 percent, adding about 52,100 jobs. Operations-research analysts are projected to grow 21.5 percent, while computer and information research scientists are projected to grow 19.7 percent.
Software developers are projected to grow 15.8 percent. Because the occupation is large, that percentage represents about 267,700 additional jobs — the largest numerical increase among the AI- and IT-related occupations highlighted by BLS.
These roles generally involve building, securing, testing or interpreting technology and data. BLS also expects the growing use of AI-based systems, cloud computing, data processing and related services to support demand for workers with computer science, programming, software development and data-analysis skills.
Jobs BLS expects to shrink
The same projections show declines in several occupations that include repetitive information-processing or administrative tasks. Customer-service representative employment is projected to fall 5.5 percent, or about 153,700 jobs.
Legal secretaries and administrative assistants are projected to decline 5.8 percent, or about 9,000 jobs. Procurement clerks are projected to decline 8.7 percent, or about 5,400 jobs. Claims adjusters, examiners and investigators are projected to decline 5.1 percent, or about 18,200 jobs.
BLS also identifies other office-support roles, including credit authorizers, checkers and clerks, and nonmedical secretaries and administrative assistants, as occupations where automation and productivity gains may limit demand.
Why BLS connects these patterns to AI
BLS says AI and other information technologies can make workers more productive by reducing the time spent on repetitive tasks. In customer service, administrative support, claims processing and procurement, software may handle or speed up parts of the work, allowing employers to complete the same volume of tasks with fewer labor hours.
BLS also cautions that these examples are not exhaustive or definitive. AI capabilities and adoption patterns continue to change, and the agency says there is considerable uncertainty about how widely generative AI will be adopted and how it will affect employment.
Technology is not the only factor behind an occupation’s outlook. Industry demand, demographics, business conditions and other technologies also affect employment projections. In healthcare, for example, AI may improve efficiency in some tasks while strong underlying demand still supports employment growth in related occupations.
What the numbers do not say
The BLS figures do not establish that AI alone will cause a specific layoff. They also do not say that the listed occupations will disappear, or that every worker in a declining occupation will be displaced.
BLS says its projections assume that structural change caused by technology will generally follow historical patterns, which have tended to be gradual. The agency also says its methods are not designed to account for a sudden acceleration in technological change.
For workers, the figures are best used as a guide to broad skills demand rather than as a guarantee. Technical, analytical and cybersecurity skills appear well positioned in the federal baseline, while workers in routine office roles may face greater pressure to add new responsibilities or training.
What to watch next
Workers and employers should watch actual job openings, training requirements, wage patterns and AI adoption rates alongside the projections. BLS says future projection sets will incorporate new information as more becomes known about technology’s effect on the economy and employment.
The key takeaway is not that AI will eliminate a fixed list of jobs. It is that federal projections point to a labor market in which overall employment grows while demand shifts toward data, software, cybersecurity, research and analytical problem-solving — and away from some routine office tasks.
Sources
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