U.S. Restaurant Sales Reach $102.5 Billion in June as Traffic Remains Weak and Costs Squeeze Margins

U.S. eating-and-drinking places recorded $102.5 billion in seasonally adjusted sales in June, a slight increase from May, but the gain came as customer traffic remained weak and restaurant expenses stayed elevated.

The National Restaurant Association reported the June figure on July 16, citing preliminary U.S. Census Bureau sales data. June sales were up from $102.4 billion in May and marked the fourth monthly increase in the preceding five months.

The numbers show a split in the restaurant industry: sales measured in dollars are continuing to rise, while the number of customer visits remains under pressure. That makes the headline growth less indicative of broadly strong demand and leaves operators facing a difficult profitability environment.

Sales are rising while traffic falls

In the association’s May operator survey, 50% of respondents said their same-store sales were higher than a year earlier, while 33% reported declines. Same-store sales track performance at established locations and do not necessarily reflect the opening or closing of restaurants.

Traffic was weaker. Forty-five percent of operators surveyed said customer traffic declined in May. On a net basis, traffic had fallen in 15 of the previous 16 months, according to the association.

That pattern matters for restaurants because higher sales totals do not necessarily mean that more people are dining out more often. Sales can be affected by menu-price changes as well as by traffic and other factors. The current data therefore point to an industry generating more revenue in nominal terms without a comparable improvement in visits.

The survey results describe the operators who responded; they are not equivalent to final government statistics and should not be generalized to every restaurant in the country.

Costs continue to weigh on profitability

The National Restaurant Association estimated that average restaurant expenses in 2026 were 36% higher than before the pandemic. Food and labor were each responsible for approximately 33 cents of every restaurant sales dollar, making them the two largest cost categories identified in the association’s analysis.

For restaurant owners and operators, the combination of weak traffic and elevated expenses can make modest sales growth less valuable than it appears. If sales rise while food, labor and other operating costs remain high, a larger top-line figure does not automatically translate into stronger margins.

The cost figures are an association estimate, rather than a final government measure. They provide context for why restaurants may continue adjusting prices, managing staffing and controlling other expenses even as monthly sales records show increases.

2026 outlook favors nominal growth

The association’s revised 2026 forecast calls for 4.3% nominal restaurant sales growth. After accounting for inflation, it projects just 0.8% growth in real, or inflation-adjusted, sales.

The gap between those forecasts underscores the central issue facing the sector. A 4.3% increase in dollar sales would represent a much larger improvement on paper than the 0.8% increase expected after inflation is taken into account. The forecast does not establish that all sales growth is caused by inflation; traffic and other factors also affect industry results.

For diners, the data describe an environment in which restaurants are still bringing in substantial sales but are operating under cost pressure and seeing fewer visits. For operators, the preliminary June result offers evidence of continued revenue growth, but the traffic and expense measures show why that growth may not lead to broadly healthier businesses.

The next interpretation of the June result will depend on how the preliminary Census Bureau figure develops and whether the industry’s traffic trend improves. For now, the latest national snapshot is one of higher nominal sales, persistent weakness in customer visits and costs well above pre-pandemic levels.