Montana FWP’s Updated Wolf Estimate Is 725; 250-Wolf Quota Remains Pending
Montana FWP’s preliminary iPOM 2.0 model estimates about 725 wolves statewide, with a 95% uncertainty range of 618 to 836. A proposed 250-wolf quota is open for comment through August 12.
Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks is using a new preliminary population model that estimates about 725 wolves statewide for 2025, while recommending a 250-wolf hunting and trapping quota for the fall 2026 and winter 2027 seasons.
The estimate and quota are not final. FWP posted its 2025 wolf report and proposed regulations on July 17, 2026. Public comment on the wolf proposal closes August 12, and the Montana Fish and Wildlife Commission is scheduled to consider potential final action on August 19 in Helena and online.
What changed in Montana’s wolf estimate
FWP’s preliminary iPOM 2.0 model estimates 725 wolves in Montana for 2025, with a 95% uncertainty range of 618 to 836 wolves. The prior iPOM 1.0 model estimated 1,094 wolves for the same year, with an uncertainty range of 991 to 1,211.
FWP cautions that the figures come from different modeling frameworks. Differences in model structure, data inputs, assumptions and estimation methods mean the estimates and their uncertainty ranges should not be treated as directly comparable census counts.
The updated model changes several parts of the monitoring framework. It uses a broader pack-size dataset, including good- and moderate-quality counts from 2007 through 2025, updated territory-size methods and a Montana-specific estimate for lone or dispersing wolves based on GPS-collar data.
The results remain preliminary. FWP says final model selection, external peer review and publication of the complete iPOM 2.0 framework are still pending. The agency’s report says the preliminary results are being provided to inform discussions about wolf harvest management and regulations.
What FWP is proposing
Under the commission proposal, FWP recommends a statewide quota of 250 wolves for hunting and trapping during the fall 2026 and winter 2027 seasons.
The proposed total includes three wolves in Wolf Management Unit 313, three in WMU 316, 33 in the remainder of Region 3 and 211 across Regions 1, 2 and 4 through 7. FWP says that if the area-specific quotas are met, the statewide population would not fall below 450 wolves during the upcoming season.
The proposed archery season would run from September 5 through September 14, 2026. The general season would run from September 15, 2026, through March 15, 2027, subject to the proposed subquotas and area-specific rules.
FWP also recommends a separate 15-wolf quota for calendar-year 2027 controlled management removals under Senate Bill 200. The provision would cover wolves taken by a landowner or the landowner’s agent on the landowner’s property when a wolf is considered a potential threat to human safety, livestock or dogs. The proposal says those removals could occur without a Class E-1 or E-2 wolf license.
FWP says annual SB 200 removals have never exceeded 12 wolves and have ranged from three to six in recent years. The department also proposes eliminating a separate quota for other lethal-control removals by FWP, USDA Wildlife Services or others in defense of property or human safety. The proposal says those non-SB 200 removals have most recently ranged from 20 to 40 wolves annually.
Why FWP recommends a 250-wolf quota
FWP says the 250-wolf statewide quota is intended to ensure that the estimated statewide population does not fall below 450 wolves during the upcoming season. That is the department’s management rationale, not a guarantee that the population will reach or remain at a particular level.
The revised model gives state officials a different numerical basis for decisions affecting hunters, trappers, livestock producers, wildlife advocates and communities where wolves are present. It does not establish a final population count, and it does not itself set the harvest rules.
Criticism and limits of the estimate
Daily Montanan reported that wildlife advocates criticized earlier FWP population estimates and argued that the proposed harvest level remains too high. The report quoted a WildEarth Guardians attorney who described the revised estimate as a useful acknowledgment of past problems while opposing the proposed quota.
Those comments are advocacy positions, not a court ruling or an independent finding that FWP’s new model is invalid. FWP’s own report identifies the iPOM 2.0 results as preliminary and says additional model development, peer review and publication are pending.
What happens next
Residents may submit comments on the wolf proposal through August 12 using FWP’s online portal or by mail to the Montana Fish and Wildlife Commission. Comments also may be offered during the August 19 meeting, subject to the commission’s procedures and any limits set by the chair.
The commission may approve, reject or modify the department’s recommendation. Until it takes action, the 250-wolf hunting and trapping quota, the 15-wolf SB 200 removal quota and the proposed season rules remain pending.
The next items to watch are any amendments or additional agenda materials, the public comments posted by FWP and the commission’s recorded action on August 19.
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